Good News & Sad

The Sox turned the tables on the Royals last night, riding an early lead and some good pitching from Josh Beckett to an easy 7-1 victory. Dice-K mania gets underway at 2 p.m. local time, so get those ESPN GameDays cranking.

On a sad, non-baseball note, former Patriots wide receiver Darryl Stingley was found dead in his Chicago-area home. Stingley, of course, was the unfortunate recipient of a blatant cheap shot from Raiders safety Jack Tatum in a meaningless pre-season game back in 1978. Tate-scum never apologized to Stingley for the hit, and later tried to capitalize on his 'fame' with a book. When Jack asked Darryl to be part of the promotion, Stingley told him to go do the anatomically impossible. RIP, Darryl.

My Opening Day

Finally - a chance to kick back and actually watch a ballgame. Because we work for a living, Monday's Red Sox-Royals 4:00 start was tough to catch. And waiting for tonight's 8:00 start - after a day off - has been excruciatingly long. Thankfully, the Sox and Royals are finally playing again, and the good guys have pulled out to a 3-0 lead in the home half of the 3rd. Papi, Manny, Drew and Lowell all figured in the scoring; Josh Beckett - who's under big-time pressure to perform this year - is looking pretty sharp and mixing his pitches more than I remember him doing last year. Right now, Beckett is mostly known as the guy we traded superstar-in-the-making Hanley Ramirez for. Bad trade to this point, but something tells me Beckett's out to prove something in '07.

And I can't believe what my eyes just saw -- back to back errors by the surehanded Mike Lowell. Royals have men on 1st and 2nd, 1 out, and a good hitter in Mark Teahen at the plate. Full count. Beckett with a huge K! Knee-high smoke that could have gone either way. Now it's up to Mike Sweeney, and Beckett just froze him with a curveball. 1-1. Sweeney smashes it to right-center and lo and behold, J.D. Drew makes an impressive running catch. Good jump, good speed. That would have been a gapper if the ol' Dirt Dog was out in right field.

Anyway, enough play by play. Gainful employment will again prevent us from watching one of the biggest stories in the majors this year when Daisuke Matsuzaka makes his much-anticipated debut tomorrow at 2:00. Definitely a TiVo event. Here's a good story from mlb.com talking about the Dice-K circus hitting Kansas City.

Opening Daze

That's what it was for the Red Sox on Monday as they stumbled badly out of the gate and dropped an ugly 7-1 decision to the Royals. There really were no highlights, save for an early RBI double from Big Papi that gave the Sox an early lead. After that, it was all about bad baserunning, bad pitching, and a complete lack of offense. It's only one game, I know, but trust me when I say it was a DISMAL opener. It was worse than that awful mustache there on Curt's face way back when.

Even worse for the boys, they had to wait an extra day - in Kansas City, no less - to atone for Monday's stinkbomb. Tonight we get to see if Josh Beckett has fixed what ailed him last year. He goes against lefty Odalis Perez in what is a must-win (kidding - kinda) for the Sox.

Other Opening Day observations and notes:

- Tremendous pitching performances turned in by the Mariners' Felix Hernandez (shutout, 3-hitter, 12 k's) and Milwaukee's Ben Sheets (CG, 2 hits)

- The Yankees wasted no time putting some crooked numbers on the board, plating 9 guys against the Devil Dogs. Whatever the record for runs in a season is, the Yanks are going to obliterate it

- My top pitcher on my roto team is already friggin' hurt. Cards' ace Chris Carpenter turned in a shaky performance on Monday and is experiencing some pain in his throwing elbow. Word so far is that it isn't serious. Those who say roto isn't all about luck are flat-out wrong

- The Mets are going to be awfully damn good this year -- and the Nationals are going to be awfully damn bad

- As far as our local squad, I'm worried. We've got three guys in our lineup that no pitcher wants to face (Ortiz, Manny, Drew) while the Yanks have at least 7 or 8

- I still can't believe we traded Hanley Ramirez. It reeks of Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen in '88

Welcome Back...

The traditional signs of spring in these parts are finally starting to kick in. Temperatures in the Boston area are warming each day, the girls are shedding some layers in the streets of Back Bay, people are starting to smile again, the Boston Marathon is quickly approaching, and the ultimate soap opera -- a year spent riveted to all things Red Sox -- begins Monday afternoon. Life is good.

The Mets throttled the defending champion Cardinals last night in St. Louis to get the season started, and later this afternoon, in a TiVo special, it's Blogger Curt going against the insanely overpaid Gil Meche in Kansas City. With the season underway, here are a few predictions - based on absolutely no research whatsoever.

AL EAST
1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay

The Sox are the trendy pick, and I'm pegging them into the top spot based on two things over the Yankees: their starting rotation and their closer (assuming Papelbon stays healthy all year). We'll see if the Yankees' modern-day Murderers' Row lineup can offset the pitching weaknesses. With Yanks' ace Chien-Mien Wang out until possibly May, and with a relatively soft schedule to begin the year, now is the time for the Sox to put some distance between their hated rivals. Toronto will win its fair share of games in 2007, but will still fall short of de-throning one of the big guys. The Blue Jays added Frank Thomas in the offseason and the perpetually injured A.J. Burnett has been looking good this spring. The battle for the AL East basement between the Orioles and Devil Rays should be a pretty heated one. Both teams have lots of young talent stockpiled. The Orioles seem to have better balance in both pitching and their everyday lineup. Devil Rays rook Delmon Young is a star in the making.

AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Kansas City

How good is the AL Central? Look at those top four teams. A lot of folks are predicting that the Tigers will be overtaken by Cleveland this year, but I'm putting my money on Jim Leyland and his boys to be hungry to atone for last year's pitiful World Series showing. They begin the season without Kenny Rogers but the Tigers won't miss a beat. The Indians, White Sox and Twins will be fighting it out for second. The Tribe has Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore and young pitching; Chicago has Dye and Konerko with spotty pitching, and the Twins have Mauer, Morneau, Hunter and Santana, but will begin the season without young ace Francisco Liriano. In the end, this is the Tribe's year to shine and they may be rewarded with a Wild Card berth. As for the Royals, their big splurge was spending $55 million on Gil Meche, which is all you really need to know. Watch for Mark Teahen to have a good year, and rookie phenoms Alex Gordon and Ryan Shealy could be bright spots.

AL WEST
1. Anaheim
2. Seattle
3. Oakland
4. Texas

The Angels are banged up for Opening Day - Colon, Jered Weaver and Chone Figgins are on the DL - but they'll still take the West when all is said and done. I think the Mariners supplant the A's for the silver medal, with King Felix leading the way for Seattle. I also like Vidro (if he stays healthy) as the everyday DH. Good, underrated hitter. It's insane to bet against the resourceful Billy Beane and Oakland, but they have to be concerned about their best hitter, Eric Chavez, and the offense they lost with the Big Hurt heading for Canada. Chavez' struggles from last year have carrried over, and the A's didn't really replace Thomas' spot in the lineup. Texas? The age-old Ranger dilemma of not having enough good pitching dooms them again. Still kills me (kills me, I tellya) to see Teixeria in this lineup. Somehow, Dan Duquette didn't think it was worth the money to tie him up in a Sox uniform.

AL playoff teams: Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Angels

NL EAST
1. Mets
2. Marlins
3. Phillies
4. Braves
5. Nationals

The Mets lineup will carry them, but they'll need to shore up their pitching along the way. Pedro needs to get healthy, and Tom Glavine can't be depended on to have the kind of year he had in '06. I really like the Marlins this year, as their young hitters are only going to get better and they've got a nice young core of arms in Dontrelle Willis, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez in their rotation. A new manager in Florida may give them a surprising boost. The Phillies will also compete in this division, but their pitching - or lack thereof - will ultimately let them down. That could change if a guy like Cole Hamels lights it up all year, and if 56-year old Jamie Moyer can still get it done. Big ifs, though. The lineup - led by Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, and Jimmy Rollins will score runs in batches. Atlanta is an interesting team this year. No one's expecting much from the Braves, but maybe that helps them. They've still got Smoltz at the top of their rotation, and maybe Tim Hudson has a big rebound year. The Jones brothers will do their normal damage, and Andruw is in a contract year. Who cares about the Nationals?

NL CENTRAL
1. Chicago
2. Houston
3. Milwaukee
4. St. Louis
5. Pittsburgh

The Cubs, like their AL brethren Red Sox, spent money like drunken sailors this past offseason. Alfonso Soriano was the big get, and having a healthy Derrek Lee in the lineup this year - along with Aramis Ramirez and Jacque Jones - will give them some extra punch. The twin hummels - Mark Prior and Kerry Wood - will spend their respective stints on the DL, but Carlos Zambrano is going to have a monster year. Second-place goes to the Astros, who also will add a Lee to their lineup in 2007 (Carlos). Mainstays Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio are in place, and it may be time for youngsters like Chris Burke and Luke Scott to shine. Roy Oswalt is the linchpin on the pitching staff. The surprise pick here is the Brewers coming in third. If they were a department store, they'd be like Marshalls - good players for less. They've got some talent on the mound and at the plate. David Bush and Chris Capuano aren't household names (because they play in Milwaukee) but they can be counted on to have solid seasons. And if Ben Sheets can stay healthy... The Brewers also added a steady veteran presence in Jeff Suppan. Offensively, the kids rule with Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Bill Hall anchoring the lineup. The Brew Crew should be fun to watch in '07. The defending champ Cardinals will struggle this season. No rhyme or reason as to why, just a guess. Maybe pin it on their drunken manager. They got - as we say here in Boston - wicked lucky last year. And finally, the perennial NL Central doormat Pirates. Quick - name me five players on Pittsburgh. Jason Bay doesn't count.

NL WEST
1. Los Angeles
2. Arizona
3. San Diego
4. San Francisco
5. Colorado

Red Sox West (a/k/a the Dodgers) looks primed for a big run this year - and with Grady Little calling the shots from the bench, Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of the lineup, and Derek Lowe on the hill, they've got a major Red Sox tint to them. Pitching-wise, LA added Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf to go along with Lowe and Brad Penny. In the 'pen, Takashi Saito - last year's surprise closer - will get a run for his money from rocket-armed Jonathan Broxton, who goes 6'4", 290 pounds by the way. Rafael Furcal, Jeff Kent, Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez are the veterans in the lineup, along with kids Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp. Call me nuts, but I think the D-Backs could have a pretty good season. Annual Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb is their stud, and if Doug Davis can find his groove, Arizona's pitcher-friendly stadium could benefit. On offense, they'll be hoping for big contributions from slugger-in-the-making Conor Jackson, Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy and rookie Chris Young. San Diego, San Francisco, and Colorado will round out the bottom three and of course, all eyes will be on the Michelin Man's fraudulent home run quest.

NL playoff teams: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Marlins

In terms of picking the league champs, it comes down to pitching, pitching, pitching.

AL Champion: Boston Red Sox

NL Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series Champion: Red Sox (because I want my Jordans-bought furniture to be free)

Just Lose, Baby

* Ahm, Celtics, what exactly are you doing? Winning? Not acceptable. We're heading straight for a lottery pick, and let's face it - the Basketball Gods owe us a little something for all the crap we've been through. Bias (still stings), Reggie Lewis, Dr. Gilbert Mudge vs. Donna Harris Lewis, the too-early retirement of Larry, M.L. as coach, Rick Pitino, Travis Knight, losing out on Tim Duncan, the deaths of Johnny Most, Dennis Johnson and the patriarch of it all, Red Auerbach. Yeah, I'd say we're due - and if the Gods show any mercy, we could be looking at Greg Oden or Kevin Durant in green. I'd personally like to see Oden.

But these Celtics obviously didn't get the memo to lose at all costs. They beat Orlando by 9 in overtime and are still locked into the second-worst record in the league at a robust 22 wins and 49 losses. The Memphis Grizzlies own the distinction of being the worst at 18-54. Milwaukee is three games ahead of Boston, which is a concern. So stop winning, dammitall.

In baseball news,

* Opening day for the Red Sox is 4 1/2 days away in Kansas City with Curt Schilling going up against $55M man Gil Meche. Mark it down - Schilling is going to have a huge year in '07. I'm calling for some big improvement from Manny this year too.

* Nomar smacks a double off the wall...

* What does it say when you've got your big annual roto auction draft in less than 24 hours and you've spent more time trying to think up a new name for your team than researching players? Probably not a good sign...

* If you had your choice, would you rather the Sox sign Ichiro or Andruw Jones as a free agent next year? Tough call...

* Final Four this weekend for college basketball with Georgetown vs. Ohio State (good chance to see Oden) and a rematch of last year's championship game with Florida vs. UCLA. College hockey waits until next weekend when it has the spotlight all to itself and still only 100 people watch. The Frozen Four this year is BC, Maine, Michigan State and North Dakota. As much as it pains me to say, BC could take it all the way they're playing. Tim Whitehead has his Maine Black Bears, as usual, playing well when the games really count. UNH coach Dick Umile certainly couldn't say the same. Not that I'm bitter or anything. After all, UNH stands for University of No Hardware. But someone up in Durham, New Hampshire, where yours truly matriculated in the late 1980s, should be looking closely at Mr. Umile and his shoddy postseason mark. I don't care about October and November wins.

Random, long overdue babble...

It's a good time on the sports calendar, but first, if I may get sentimental for a second, look at that little polar bear cub. Don't you want one of those things? Maybe until it grows into a 300-pound, fast, man-eating force.

Okay, enough Wild Kingdom. This is a nice time to be a sports fan. We've got the NCAA college hoops and hockey tournaments in full swing, the Sox getting ready to start another much-anticipated season, the NFL Draft on the horizon with the Patriots - the most aggressive team this offseason in terms of adding new talent - having not one but two first-round picks. As SI's Peter King concluded in his story this week on the Pats, the rich get richer and maybe more importantly, the smart get smarter. The Pats have to be the odds-on favorite in the AFC right now.

March Madness so far this year has been a little subdued. Not a lot of upset specials or great endings, but that's slowly changing as the Final Four comes into focus. Good games today with Ohio State vs. Memphis and Kansas vs. UCLA. Some school of thought around here thinks it's in the Celts best interest for Ohio State and Greg Oden to win the whole thing. Oden may be more inclined to go pro after hitting the mountain; a disappointing loss might leave him unfulfilled. Should be interesting to watch. Celts right now are locked into the 2nd-worst record in the league, trailing only the Memphis Grizzlies.

College hockey is always a good take too. Hockey East placed five teams in the tournament, and so far those teams are 2-1. UMass and Maine both won their first-round games, and BU got thumped last night by Michigan State. Today in Manchester, it's my UNH Wildcats playing Miami of Ohio at 1, and then BC playing St. Lawrence in the second game. Both games are on locally on CN8. Maine vs. UMass (should be a great game) are on ESPNU (wherever the hell that is on the dial) at 6. In other regionals, Notre Dame and Michigan State play for a Frozen Four spot tonight, Minnesota has an easy one against Air Force, and North Dakota plays Michigan. Frozen Four predictions: BC, ND, UMass, Minnesota.

In Red Sox land, the big, big story of the last couple days is that the Sox finally have their stud closer - and he was under their noses the whole time. The team announced this week that they're putting Jonathan Papelbon back into the closer role, and my first reaction was one of relief. I think it's the right move. Yes, it makes the dream rotation less dreamy, but that's not the key issue. The key issue is that they have now avoided the potential nightmares of watching Matsuzaka, Schilling and Beckett pitch 6 or 7 good innings and then having a late-game implosion to wipe all the good away. If Papelbon is healthy, and all signs indicate that he is, Pap should be his old, unhittable, microscopic-ERA self.

Speaking of our pricey Japanese import, Matsuzaka showed glimpses of his unhittable-ness this past week against the Pirates. One thing that's been interesting to read is all the gushing quotes from opposing players. The general sentiment is that you don't know which arm angle you're going to see every pitch, never mind what type of pitch he's throwing. Like all great pitchers, he seems to enjoy the challenge of outguessing a hitter, similar to Pedro in his glory days.

Other notes and thoughts on Spring Training:

- J.D. Drew has been lighting it up this spring

- Jason Varitek's struggles on offense have unfortunately continued. He smacked a homer yesterday, but his possible decline is a source of concern.

- Nick Cafardo has an interesting quote from a rival GM in his column this morning. The GM makes the point that the Sox' opening up a spot in their rotation (with the Papelbon move) might appeal more to Roger Clemens. Everything I've read says Clemens will make his decision around May, and that it's still the Sox, Yankees and Astros in the running. What a storybook ending that could be.

- Interesting development this week with prolific blogger Curt Schilling. Schilling made mention of the Sox moving Papelbon to the closer role, which brought up the issue of him breaking news from inside the locker room. ESPN really broke the news first, but still brings up some interesting ethical questions. If you haven't checked it out, his blog is worth a look. Little too heavy on the video game crap, but the baseball stuff is educational. And he's a pretty good writer to boot.

- Superstition alert: Dice-K is Sports Illustrated's cover boy this week on its baseball preview issue. Watch your step, Dice.

- Of course, the start of the baseball season means fantasy baseball is cranking up this week. I've got my draft this Thursday night in a league I've been in for more than 10 years. It's a 10-team league, 5x5, auction, 2 keepers. Seeing as how I've done absolutely zero prep, if you have any strategies that have worked or tips on players, let me know.

- I participate in a Home Run Derby pool that's pretty fun. The general idea: you start at 75% of a guy's homer total from the previous year, and try to pick the ones who will hit a lot more homers than that 75% total. You pick a team of 8 guys and you're basically looking for hitters that you think are trending up, or those that were injured the year before (i.e., Gary Sheffield and Derrek Lee) and are starting at a low HR base. The highest "plus" team in terms of homer improvement wins. One guy who might be worth taking on the upside angle is KC's Ryan Shealy. Any other thoughts on who you think will hit a lot of HRs this year?

- Everyone's talking about the Red Sox and the Yankees, but two teams to keep an eye on in the AL are the Blue Jays and the Angels. That Toronto lineup with Frank Thomas is going to give pitchers head-spins, and the Angels have the arms.

- Tony LaRussa got pulled over the other night in Florida for DUI. Somewhere, Edgar Renteria is smiling.

- Speaking of shortstops, has any team experienced the type of turnover the Sox have seen at this position. It's their own fault - I'd be pretty happy with Orlando Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez at SS - but now we have to welcome another new guy in Julio Lugo. I do not understand the organization's fascination with Lugo. We shall see.

- Here's what scares me a little bit about the Yanks vs. Sox. We have the edge in pitching, but the Yanks still have the superior lineup. We've got four potential weak links with Varitek, Youkilis, Pedroia, and Crisp, and Lowell is border-line. That's why they were going after Helton. Some have even suggested they may make a run at Ichiro when he becomes a free agent next year. I'm all for it. Coco's under the gun this year.

Let the Madness Begin

H. V. Porter, an official with the Illinois High School Association (and later a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame) was the first person to use March Madness to commemorate a basketball tournament. A gifted writer, Porter published an essay named March Madness in 1939 and in 1942 used the phrase in a poem, Basketball Ides of March. Through the years the use of March Madness picked up steam, especially in Illinois and other parts of the Midwest. During this period the term was used almost exclusively in reference to state high school tournaments. In 1977, the IHSA published a book about its tournament titled March Madness.

Fans began connecting the term to the NCAA tournament in the early 1980s. Evidence suggests that CBS sportscaster Brent Musburger, who had worked for many years in Chicago prior to joining CBS, popularized the term during the annual tournament broadcasts. - Wikipedia

There you have it -- the abridged history of the term "March Madness," which we're about to witness starting later this week. H.V. Porter dreamt it up, and Brent - 'you are live...' Musburger got the snowball rolling down the hill.

Just let me make one thing perfectly clear right up front. I have watched maybe - maybe - the equivalent of one full college basketball game this year. Before BC suspended one of its best players, I vaguely remember watching an Eagles-Duke game, with Dickie Vitale at courtside having a coronary. I think that was this season...

Anyway, my point is that I'm not a big college hoops guy - but this ingenious tournament that's about to begin this week, otherwise known as the NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, just hooks you in and keeps you interested. And wouldn't you know it - there's Dickie V. on my TV again right now, giving the selection committee holy hell for leaving Florida State and Drexel out of the dance. He's a clown but you gotta love him this time of year, and you have to admire the guy's passion. Veins are literally popping out of his forehead because he feels the Drexel Dragons got snubbed!

And therein lies the beauty of this tournament -- it's all about Cinderellas and stories - all of which appeal to the heart of a real sports fan. There's also the office pools. Tomorrow is like a holiday for office copiers across America -- that's when the brackets come out and everyone from your boss to the guy in the mailroom makes his picks and then watches the madness. Some people pick their alma maters, others try to put some serious analysis into it. If your team is lucky enough to be in it, you may have to leave work a little early on Thursday.

There has to be a way to modify this playoff system for college football.

Another Day, Another Signing

My goodness have the Patriots decided to be active. News broke late this morning that the Pats have come to terms with WR Dante Stallworth, a former first-round pick from the 2002 draft. Stallworth, 26, spent his first few years with the Saints - recording 128 catches in 2004 and 2005 - and then spent last year in Philly. I don't know much about him, other than he's a game-breaking talent who can stretch the field for Brady and the offense. Read more from the Globe's Mike Reiss here.

A couple of links for your reading pleasure:

- The loquacious Curt Schilling has finally found an outlet that's right up his alley. His daily blog is actually a pretty good read with some good insights into the game.

- Alan Greenberg, a former Patriots beat writer, died suddenly last week at the age of 55. Didn't know much about his work, but this piece will tug at your heartstrings, especially if you have kids.

Back in the Saddle

To my three loyal readers, I hereby proclaim that Hardball Heaven is back on track. (That's the new Mrs. Brady on the right - my little bribe to get y'all back in the fold). We got a little derailed there because, well, what's there to say about college basketball and NASCAR? Thankfully, the two Boston sports teams who dominate the news year-round are back with a vengeance.

The Red Sox, of course, have begun spring training in postcard-perfect Fort Myers, Florida - meaning the sensation that is Dice-K is in full swing. We'll get to that circus in a minute.

The Free-Spending Pats

First, though, how about them Patriots? You know, that team that doesn't spend any money? Less than a month after that gut-wrenching loss to the Colts in the AFC title game (I still haven't come to terms), the Patriots have made themselves better with a flurry of moves and signings not seen in my lifetime.

I can't remember an NFL free agency period quite like this one. Just like baseball, the money is flowing like beer at a frat kegger. Just before the frenzy began, I was reading an ESPN column that listed all the prominent free agents and predicted which teams they might end up with. To my dismay, our Patriots were nowhere to be found on the list. Then, a couple days later, we start hearing a buzz that Adalius Thomas - the monster linebacker from the Ravens - is traveling to Foxborough to meet with the Pats. Evidently, Thomas liked what he saw and heard from Bill Belichick at the Pro Bowl in Hawaii, and Belichick and Scott Pioli liked what they saw of Thomas on tape as they prepared for a potential matchup with the Ravens in the playoffs. Just like that, one of the best free agents was a Patriot. But that wasn't all.

In the coming days, the Patriots signed two players away from division rival Miami - RB Sammy Morris and WR Wes Welker, and they also added veteran TE Kyle Brady to compensate for the loss of Daniel Graham to the Broncos. Morris makes sense because Corey Dillon is officially an ex-Patriot. The jury's out on whether Laurence Maroney can be the man full-time (something tells me he'll be working out extra-hard this offseason), but Morris should be a nice addition to a rotation that includes Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans. I'm thrilled with Welker. Think of him as a younger Troy Brown - in other words, a human Swiss Army knife. He's one of the best punt/kick returners in the league (so the Pats can remove Maroney from that role), and he'll be a dangerous option for Tom Brady. He had a career-high 67 receptions in 2006, and he even kicked a field goal for the Dolphins a couple years ago in an emergency situation. Kyle Brady, on the other hand, is well-known by Belichick and is by all accounts one of the better blockers in the league.

Oh yeah, one other move. Right before the free agency madness began, the Pats slapped the franchise tag on CB Asante Samuel, who had a tremendous year in '06. While I'm sure Asante isn't pleased - considering the dollars being thrown around - here's hoping the Pats and Bob Kraft do the right thing and give the kid the money. He deserves it.

Daddy Brady

While we're on the subject of our football team, we must address the recent developments surrounding our all-world quarterback. As we all know, Brady split up with B-list actress Bridget Moynahan a couple months back and recovered quite nicely, taking up with Victoria's Secret lingerie model Gisele Bundchen. (Can you imagine telling your buddies that you're banging a Victoria's Secret lingerie model??)

While Tom's busy frolicking with the Brazilian bombshell, Bridgie lands a haymaker with the announcement that she's pregnant and Tom's the dad. Brady didn't make a statement for what seemed like eternity, but then eventually came out and said he was excited and looking forward to being a father (right). Of course, all the skeptics around here started speculating that this was all planned by Moynahan, and it certainly looks that way. Her TV show, which had been canceled, all of a sudden has been renewed. Amazing what a little publicity does for ya. Meanwhile, Brady's still romping around Paris with Gisele, and rumors are flying that she's now pregnant. Her family actually came out this week and said it's not true. Still, for a guy who's devoutly Catholic, and squeaky-clean, it's been a tough couple months for Tom. But again, he is bedding a Victoria's Secret supermodel, so it can't be all that bad.

Three-Ring Circus

And finally, the reason we exist here at Hardball Heaven...

Red Sox camp is in full swing, and stories abound. A quick, high-level recap:

Dice-K: the Nation stopped in its tracks for his two-inning debut against the mighty Boston College Eagles. NESN pre-empted regular programming to show the folks back home in frigid New England what this guy was all about. The first batter, who also doubles as BC's punter for football season, lined Dice-K's very first pitch for a double. After that, though, he was pretty impressive. My initial observations - he's got a million different looks and arm angles, his fastball isn't overpowering but it's got insane movement, and his off-speed stuff is well above average. He's only going to get better. The big question is not his ability, but how well he can handle the transition to America and MLB. Something tells me he'll manage just fine thanks.

Curt Schilling: say what you want about the Big Shill, but can you imagine if Pedro was still on this team and all the attention was being bestowed on Dice-K? Schilling has willingly taken a backseat, though his contract negotiations were news for a few days. He took to the airwaves a while back and said that he was planning to play another year beyond this one, which is his final contract year in Boston. That left open the possibility that the Sox would try to get him signed to a deal before this season began. Wisely, in my opinion, they decided not to throw millions at a guy who's 41 years old. They'd rather wait, let him be extra-incented this year, and then try to get something done. Schilling was obviously disappointed, and some fans felt they should have signed the guy for his Bloody Sock heroics alone. I think this is the right move.

The closer, or lack thereof: all in all, the Sox' roster looks pretty damn solid. They will be better offensively with Julio Lugo and JD Drew in the lineup, and their pitching is much-improved. It's the tail end, however, that is still a glaring concern. They're auditioning any number of guys for the closer role. Joel Pineiro. Brendan Donnelly. Craig Hansen. Mike Timlin. Unfortunately, the best closer on the team is now a member of the starting rotation. Jonathan Papelbon was abolutely lights out last year before he got hurt, and the Sox' medical people have made the call that starting is better for him health-wise. Still, don't you get the nagging feeling that he may return to his previous role? I'd still like to see them make a move for Washington's Chad Cordero (and I still want Helton, too) so they may not be done just yet.

Jon Lester's return: And last, we'll close on a positive note. Jon Lester, who had his season cut short last year with a shocking diagnosis of a form of cancer, looks pretty damn good for what he's been through. You knew listening to him last year after he found out that he had the mental and intestinal fortitude required to battle this, and battle he did. He looks great, and could be a very welcome surprise in 2007.

The Diceman Pitcheth

Here it is, courtesy of the Boston Globe - the very first picture of Daisuke Matsuzaka in the home whites. The Dice Man threw 44 pitches of live BP yesterday, and from all accounts looked pretty impressive. He also scratched his arm three times, adjusted his belt four times, picked his nose twice, and did not use the resin bag once.

RIP, DJ

Shocking to hear that former Celtics guard Dennis Johnson collapsed and died today from a heart attack. DJ was a much too young 52. In addition to being one of the most interesting-looking people in the NBA with that strange red hair and the freckles, he was also one of the most underrated players in NBA history. Sick defense, clutch offense. Won a championship in Seattle in 1979, the same year Larry Bird began his career with the Celtics. Starter on the greatest five ever assembled in the 1986 Celtics (Bird, DJ, Ainge, Parish, Walton, McHale). Five-time all-star. Three championship rings. And yet not a Hall of Famer.

As a star-struck kid following those 80's Celtics teams, DJ was a joy to watch. He always played with his chest puffed out, and his offense got better the bigger the game. It's also been great to hear some of the stories about DJ today. He had the real common-man touch. One guy told a story about how DJ was shopping in his family's store, and his Dad was a big Celtics fan so he started a conversation. Next thing you know, the guy invited DJ to come to his son's 11th birthday party and DJ showed up and had cake and ice cream. Pretty cool.

Here's hoping Red and DJ can watch over those ping-pong balls.

I Knew It!

It's official. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have had a falling out in their relationship, with A-Rod complaining that he used to sleep over at Jeter's place 4 or 5 times a week. 4 or 5 times a week. Interpret amongst yourselves.

Four Beautiful Words: Pitchers and Catchers Report

I miss football, dammit. It's Patriots football and Red Sox baseball that rule year-round here in Boston, and when you think about it, it's both amazing and embarrassing how long our two winter sports teams have been completely irrelevant. Thankfully, the void between the end of the football season and the start of spring training is only 12 days. That's the amount of time the local college hoops teams, hockey teams, Bruins and Celtics have to strut their stuff in front of maybe a few more eyes. It's the Black Hole of sports. I just can't get into college basketball ('cept for Final Four), I love college hockey, I watch the Bruins sparingly and I haven't watched a Celtics game all year long - though it's becoming more tempting as their car wreck of a season continues. After tonight's tough 2-point loss to Minnesota, the Celtics, folks, have officially lost 18 consecutive games. Very hard to do, but the injuries this team has suffered this year have absolutely ravaged them. If you're wondering, the NBA record is only five defeats away. Both the expansion Vancouver Grizzlies in 1995 (remember them?) and the 1997-98 Denver Nuggets lost 23 games in a row. So as far as the NBA goes, we're already salivating over the potential choice between Ohio State's Greg Oden and Texas' Kevin Durant. (even though we're also students of history - and remember that lotteries haven't always been kind to us (Tim Duncan in 1998 and Massachusetts State in forever).

Praise to the Lord, this is the week where we'll see the obligatory photo in the Globe or Herald of the Red Sox truck leaving for Fort Myers. Pitchers and catchers report on Friday and it's time to put baseball back on the front-burner until early November.

It's going to be very interesting to see how this team gels in 2007, and I think one thing in our favor is Terry Francona's ability to to bring people together. This is what the lineup currently looks like:

Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia. Not too shabby. The open questions are leadoff, the order of 6 through 9, and the unknown quantity in Pedroia, who some reports say has dropped more than 20 pounds. Youkilis, overrated in my book, may also see some time higher up in the batting order. This is why acquiring Helton made so much sense in my mind because he stretches the lineup. As far as bench players, we've got Wily Mo, Alex Cora, Eric Hinske and Doug Mirabelli. Not inspiring, but the regular lineup is much improved.

The pitching rotation looks pretty sweet with Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Jonathan Papelbon, Tim Wakefield, and maybe Jon Lester all in the mix. Would have been nice to grab one more No. 3 or 4 lefty starter during the offseason. Lester's recovery from non-Hodgkins lymphoma will be closely monitored.

The closer sweepstakes looks like it's on again and will be a source of daily debate. With the Sox sticking to their plan to make Papelbon a starter, the likely candidates for the role are Mike Timlin, Julian Tavarez, Joel Pineiro, Brendan Donnelly, and Craig Hansen.

An Unremarkable End to an Unremarkable Season

In one of the sloppier, duller Super Bowls ever - played in a constant pelting rain - Peyton Manning and the Colts (and Bill Polian, ugh) finally won the Big One, 29-17, over an overmatched Bears team. Peyton also took home the MVP for his troubles, mostly because they couldn't well give it to a no-name safety (I still can't remember his name) who made the biggest pick of his life against Rex Grossman as the Bears were driving and trying to take the lead. The other standouts for the Colts were the two running backs, Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes.

This was one strange game. The Colts completely dominated in plays run, time of possession and total yardage, and yet Chicago was somehow still in it until Grossman threw his fateful interception to Kelvin Hayden, who promptly raced into the end zone to seal the deal. When we think about this one 20 years from now, we won't remember any Manning heroics. There was no glorious Adam Vinatieri field goal to bring confetti from the roof. We'll remember the two Colt RBs, we'll remember Devin Hester's electric TD on the opening kickoff, and most of all, we'll remember the rain. And maybe Prince. And, okay, his dancing Twins.

For those of us still smarting that the Patriots lost - and the gnawing thought that they easily would have won another Lombardi for the trophy case at Gillette Stadium - remember this. Brady 3, Manning 1. And we of course can't wait to see LaDainian Tomlinson play for Bill Belichick in the Pro Bowl soon.

After that, all eyes turn to baseball.

Ah, That's Better...

Sorry 'bout that first picture of Prince with his 80's poodle mullet thing. Here he is in more recent times with his hot Twins. Yow.

Fourth quarter is just underway - Colts lead, 22-17. A Colts TD would please me greatly.

Purple Rain

Now, if I had bet on things like 'Prince will open with 'Let's Go Crazy' I'd be doing alright. Unfortunately, I did not - and I was one of many thousands of Americans who lost an opportunity to win some square money when Adam Vinatieri missed that chip shot right before the half. Traitor Bastard. Honestly, the greatest clutch kicker in the history of the world is lining up a 20-something yarder, and I'm thinking it's okay to start wondering how I'll spend my 250 clams and not tell my wife about it. And then he pulls a Rich Karliss on me. Another bastard from my past. Bare-footed, even. But, as my Mom always told me, there are people worse off than me. Just got off the phone with my Dad and he lost $500 on the missed FG. And then he told me the waitress at the place he's at lost $1000. So I'm calming down.

Colts lead a rainy, mistake-filled game 16-14. I actually feel bad for the teams and fans that have to sit through this - they had gorgeous weather all week long, and now it's raining pretty good and nobody can hold onto the pigskin. Actually, screw that - I almost did a split on ice this morning in my driveway and I can't feel my toes right now. They can deal with some wussy showers.

By the way, allow me a quick media commentary note. I was an early reader of Bill Simmons, ESPN's Sports Guy, back when he used to send around 'live diary' emails of Patriots games. He was really good back in the day, and he pioneered the sports blog on his old Digital City Boston website. He's since gone on to greener ($$) pastures, and good for him. When he's on, he's one of the best. But I have to say, his coverage this week in Miami has been absolutely lame. He's written a column every two or three days, and the submissions have been half-assed. Walking around radio row. Some observations on Miami. How him and his old intern bumped into Anna Kournikova at a party. It's almost like something happened to him down there - maybe one of his patented colds or the sniffles or something set in. Warrants mentioning. For some good yuks, check out his Wikipedia page, which some ingenious sole took the time to write (I claim credit for the first line of the second paragraph - seriously).

Da Colts

We're minutes away from the kickoff of Super Bowl XLI, and I'm going with my head over my heart for once this year. The Colts will win the game, and Peyton will have his day in the sun - or at least the light rain. Not that I wouldn't love to see the Bears win, though. A Chicago triumph would diminish that sour-apple loss the Pats suffered to Indy a fortnight ago.

The first prop is out of the way - the Bears win the coin flip, and Devin Hester is stretching his legs. Here's hoping for a good game.

And that was prescient - Devin Hester just returned the opening kick of the Super Bowl for a touchdown. Un-freaking-believable.

Helton Deal Dead?

All reports indicate that talks are cooling with the Rockies to acquire Todd Helton. Lots of different reports - one saying that Colorado was only willing to eat around $25-30 million of the remaining $90 million on his contract - and another saying the Rockies insisted on both Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen (in addition to Mike Lowell and Julian Tavarez). I'd only do this deal if Colorado absorbed half the money, and if either Hansen or Delcarmen was included. Another thing to ponder is that there's some bad blood between the front offices of these teams - stemming from all things, the aborted deal a while back for someone named Larry Bigbie. Adding fuel to the fire, some reports have said the Sox are pissed that the Rockies publicly threw Lowell and Tavarez' names out there so quickly. Could the Yankees be showing some late interest in Helton? They signed Doug Mientkiewicz in the offseason because they can't afford to play Jason the Juicer there anymore -- but Helton would be an upgrade. And that would be a little zing at the Sox. Stay tuned - something tells me this deal isn't completely dead.

Schilling's Not Going Away Anytime Soon

Semi-big announcement today on the local sports radio station. Curt Schilling, who had been contemplating retiring after the 2007 season, just informed the masses that he's planning to play in 2008 and possibly beyond. Schilling's a spotlight hog, and can be incredibly cheesy at times, but he's still a hugely positive piece of this team. He said he's in negotiations with the Sox right now for beyond 2007, and if they can't agree to terms, he's willing to pitch somewhere else - except New York. Hear that, Traitor Johnny?

Sox-Rockies Talking Swap

Lots of talk today that the Sox are on the verge of acquiring longtime Rockies' 1B Todd Helton. The Sox would give up Mike Lowell, Julian Tavarez, and possibly either Manny Delcarmen or Craig Hansen in the deal - and the sides would split the remaining $90 million on Helton's contract. ESPN's Buster Olney has been all over this story like flies on you know what.

While I'd rather it was Youkilis heading out west instead of Lowell, I like the deal. I understand Helton's not the mega-star he was earlier this decade, but he is a superior defensive first baseman (three Gold Gloves) and he's the kind of guy who would be a great complement to the big boppers, Manny and Ortiz. Helton makes pitchers work, and would slot in nicely right after J.D. Drew in the lineup. If Lowell stayed on (I believe he's only got one year left on his contract), the Sox would have the best corner infield defense around.

At any rate, if the deal goes down here's what the lineup would look like:

SS Julio Lugo
3B Kevin Youkilis
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF J.D. Drew
1B Todd Helton
C Jason Varitek
CF Coco Crisp
2B Dustin Pedroia

Not too shabby. Can you say high pitch counts?

One Week Later...

...it still hurts. It's been six days since the Colts eked out a Super Bowl berth over the Patriots and the dissection, analysis, and overall bitching continues. All of which speaks to how great a game it was.

In my humble opinion, it may have been the best playoff game I've ever seen - crappy outcome aside. All the Patriot haters across the land - and there are many of them - are trying to equate the Pats squandering an 18-point lead to the "Greatest Choke in the History of Sports", aka the Yankees' losing the 2004 ALCS to the Sox. Not even remotely close. These harebrains are overlooking two things - the crazy Bills-Oilers playoff game 14 years ago where Frank Reich led the Bills back from a 32-point deficit, and the simple fact that a) the Patriots had no business beating the best team in football the week before, and b) it was an utter miracle that they came within two blown refs' calls and four measly yards from going to another Super Bowl.

What makes the sting still intense almost a week later is just how winnable this game was. We were on the doorstep of witnessing history, but so many pieces made this one unravel. First, the players and the coaches made key mistakes at crucial times. No question about it, so let's get that one out of the way. Belichick should have burned a timeout in the 4th quarter, which would have given Brady more time on the last drive, Brady made some bad reads and panicked on the game-ending pick, Reche Caldwell had some gigantic drops, Laurence Maroney looked at times like he was running with concrete boots on... and on and on.

Unfortunately, there were other outside forces conspiring against our squad. Key injuries to Rodney Harrison (think the Colts' not having Bob Sanders) and Junior Seau (who may have provided some speed at ILB). Having to travel to the west coast the week before and pour it all out to beat the Chargers. The flu that traveled through the locker room in the week leading up to the game. Key injuries (Faulk) during the game. And some poor, poor refereeing. I understand the Pats have been mostly beneficiaries during this amazing run, but some of the calls that were made against them Sunday night - in a game with enormous stakes - were just atrocious. The two that continue to piss me off the most are non-interference call on Caldwell in the end zone, and the call that was made on Hobbs when he had his back turned on Wayne. Caldwell was absolutely mugged and Hobbs didn't touch Wayne - not to mention the fact that the ball was uncatchable. And this was an all-star ref crew? BRUTAL. My question is this: if coaches can review plays that are called, why can't they review plays that aren't called? Give them one challenge per game. And I say this not because of this particular situation and the fact that I'm a Pats rooter - I've always felt the most important thing is to GET IT RIGHT. Making the blood boil more, the NFL office came out yesterday and said the refs did indeed blow those two calls. The Colts' can thank the lucky horse shoes on their helmets for their all-expense paid trip to Miami. Though I do give a lot of credit to Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark. Manning was downright surgical when he needed to be, and Clark was immense. The Patriots had no answer for him. And I guess I'm happy for Tony Dungy - who seems like a genuinely nice guy. Other than that, I detest the Colts and I'm rooting for da Bears.

Anyway, this one's in the record books as an L but something tells me it's going to linger for quite some time - both with fans and the players. I'm trying to stick to the high road in thinking that this was an enjoyable season that came out of nowhere. We're so spoiled around here, and in many ways I hate what success has done to us - but this season was a gift. The last two weeks (Chargers, Colts) rivaled the joy felt in the first Super Bowl season. We should be proud of what these guys pulled off. According to this well-written piece from the Globe's Mike Reiss, Coach Bill is.

OUCH

I'm gonna be guilty for BUI - blogging under the influence - but what the hell... how can I not let the stream of consciousness flow from my skull after this one? If anything, it will be therapeutic. It hurts right now - really smarts, to be honest -but I told myself to be appreciative of this year, and I'll try to stick to it.

But GODDDDAAAMMMMMMMMMIT. We're up 18 points after Asante Samuel's pick-six and all looks rosey. Then all hell breaks loose. I'm trying to think 'be classy' here. Really, I am. I respect Peyton Manning and feel good for Tony Dungy. I'm glad this didn't come down to an Adam Vinatieri field goal. But I can't get the no interference call on Reche Caldwell out of my head. He was completely mugged, and you know if it was Reggie Wayne, the yellow hankies would have been raining out of the second balcony. The love tap to Peyton's head for roughing the passer was lame. The phantom call on Troy Brown. Caldwell's huge drops. I know - coulda, shoulda, woulda - but I just needed to get that off my chest.

I can't believe they lost this game. I don't understand what happened to Corey Dillon - are we going to hear a Roger Clemens-esque story here? Was he too tired to go back in there? The guy went from being a stud in the first quarter to being featured on milk cartons. I don't get it. Maroney was a huge disappointment in this one. I thought he had a chance to make a big impact, but instead all we saw was a lot of hesitation at the line of scrimmage and a bunch of 1-yard gains. In the 4th quarter, when it really counted - and again, my brain is a bit clouded right now - I think I saw a little too much of Heath Evans? And who was No. 52 playing linebacker? Johnny Rembert? Oh, how I wish Junior and Rodney could have suited up for this one.

Still, with a minute left, a couple of well-preserved timeouts, and the ball in Tom Brady's capable hands, the Colts' four-point lead didn't seem insurmountable. And then he threw the pick, to another guy named Marlin no less - but this one had the presence of mind to just lay down. Game over.

All that said, the Colts' offense woke up for this one in a big way and they deserve credit for that. I think the big swing was when Peyton drove his team down the field for three at the end of the first half, and then they took the ball for a big chunk of time to begin the second half. After that, the Pats' D was gassed. Dallas Clark was immense in this one, outshining both Harrison and Wayne. And, of course, Peyton answered his many critics by making the big throws when they needed them. It was pretty cool to see how Peyton couldn't watch when Brady was driving with less than minute left. That's respect. Fear, even. And it was also classy on the part of Tedy Bruschi and some other Pats' veterans to find Peyton in the postgame scrum, shake his hand, and wish him well. The guy has been a valiant competitor.

In the end, it's an instant classic that the NFL Network will no doubt be re-playing some night this week. For us, though, it's a classic for all the wrong reasons. A punch to the gut that will hurt for a long time. The Pats could have gone to the Super Bowl and they would have steamrolled (like the Colts will) over the Bears. But it wasn't meant to be. I suppose we can take solace in the fact that the Pats weren't expected to be in this situation to begin with - remember early in the year when Brady was going ballistic over his lack of receiving depth? Seems like eons ago. And all of a sudden, Caldwell and Gaffney are making big grabs. And in crunch time in the AFC Championship game, we had guys named Baker and Alexander on the field. No excuses by any means, but I'm just saying we should appreciate what this team did this year. We're so goddamned spoiled.

I'm rambling, and it's time to go to bed. I think that was relatively therapeutic. I'll let you know in the morning. Twenty-five days until pitchers and catchers report.

Pats-Colts Update

Wow, couldn't have asked for anything better than what we've seen so far. The Pats are up 21-6 at the half, and it's been a completely balanced effort. Dillon has run far better than I thought he would, Brady has been his usual magical self with some clutch darts, and the defense - particularly the secondary (think they had a chip on their collective shoulder going into this one?) has been positively outstanding.

Peyton and the Colts have been taken out of their rhythm, though they did string together a nice no-huddle drive in their two-minute offense at the end of the half. The hayseed got hot but the drive only resulted in a field goal.

Three huge, gargantuan plays so far:

1) The fumble that wasn't a fumble on the Pats' first drive. Maroney looked like he was handling a stick of butter on a handoff down by the goal line, the ball popped loose and it looked for sure that the Colts recovered. Alas, the ball kept scooting and one of the big Pats O-liners jumped on it in the end zone. The rabbit's foot made the flight to Indy.

2) Brady's 3rd down pass to (who else?) Troy Brown on the second drive that put the Pats up 14-3.

3) Asante Samuel's imitation of Ty Law, picking off a Manning-to-Harrison pass and waltzing into the end zone for a 21-3 lead.

The Pats D-line deserves huge kudos for their pressure on Peyton during the first half. They have to put the nail in early - can't let these guys get back into this.

Yup, He's One of Ours

Check out what this sly cat is wearing to the Pats-Colts game this evening. That takes some serious balls. Good thing he's wearing a hard hat.

One surprising note: just read that the RCA Dome only holds 57,000 people. Would have bet it was much more.

Meanwhile, momentum is shifting in the Bears-Saints game as Reggie Bush just hauled in a Drew Brees pass deep in Saints territory and sprinted for an 80-yard-plus TD. 16-14 Bears, and the folks in Chicago are getting very nervous.

Hour and a half until the real Super Bowl kicks off.

'Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, Peyton couldn't sleep, he just sat on the couch'

Some thoughts while wondering what Complainian Tomlinson and Marty Schamenheimer must be thinking today, knowing they'd be facing that porous Colts rush D tomorrow...

- I love how everyone and their brother has become a football analyst over the past year or so. I can't tell you how many e-mails I've gotten with guys talking about 'Cover-2,' or 'putting 8 men in the box.' Why just the other day, my 65-year old mother in law said to me, 'Brady and Manning have an average QB rating of 47.52 in these playoffs. Which one's going to reverse the trend on Sunday?" Ok, I made that up. But you get the point. It truly has become America's game, and we're all a bunch of know-it-all's.

- I don't think we could ask for two better games. The Bears and Saints were clearly the best teams in the weak-sister NFC all year long, and the Patriots-Colts battle is tailor-made for TV from a gajillion different story angles. Let's dive in to Bears-Saints first...


Saints @ Bears, Sunday, FOX, 3 p.m.

The Bears suck. Plain and simple. Worst No. 1 seed in the history of the NFL, if such records were kept. For the first half of the year, their vicious defense masked Grossman's warts. Through the second half, though, their defense - particularly the secondary - has played like a bunch of Spanish bullfighters. I think I saw a stat that they're allowing 285 yards per game through the air over the last couple of months. That's not a good omen, especially with Drew Brees coming to town. You can talk all you want about home-field advantage for the Bears, and the bone-chilling cold - in my humble opinion, it ain't gonna matter. Not only can the Saints air it out, they've also got the best 2-back tandem left in these here NFL playoffs in Deuce McCallister and Reggie Bush. Not having seen much of the Saints on TV this year (except for their Dallas demolition one Sunday night), I was hugely impressed with Deuce last week against Philly. The guy's a friggin' bull. And when you pair him up with the silky smooth Bush catching passes in the flat, you can take your Cover-2, 8 men in the box, and whatever else and stuff it up your anus. Can I name a Saints defensive player? No - wait, maybe that chicken Fajita guy. And that corner they kept picking on last week, Fred something or other. I still think the Saints take this one, and march on to an absolutely improbable berth in Super Bowl XLI.

Saints 26, Bears 16.


Patriots @ Colts, CBS, 6:30 p.m.

You may have heard. The Patriots are playing the Colts again in a big game. Peyton tries to rid himself of those little gray-sweatshirt wearing demons he sees in his sleep one last time. And that annoying all-american QB who's standing in his way. Tom Brady's like that guy in your circle of friends who's good at every goddamn game. You know the guy I'm talking about? Never picks up a golf club, but shoots a 77. Runs the table in pool. Draws a full house in high-stakes poker. Kicks your ever-loving ass in Scrabble. We all know guys like that. Throw in 'dates an ultra-hot Brazilian supermodel,' and Christ, he must want to kill him. But I digress.

The game. Let's just say 6:30 tomorrow night feels like an eternity. Most of the experts across the country are calling for a long overdue Colts win. It's Peyton's time, they say. The Colts have made themselves better, to that there's no doubt. They've got the clutchest (I can make up words, it's my blog) kicker in NFL history on their side, two All-Pro wideouts, a stud TE, and an extremely impressive rookie RB. They've also got Bob Sanders, who just might be the greatest football player of all-time, period. (Sarcasm). And of course, they've got the hayseed throwing seeds. I actually don't mind Peyton that much, and I respect his skills, but I do engage in a bit of schadenfreude whenever I see him windmilling his arms, bitching out his receivers or the refs, and generally acting like an over-tired 3-year old. The Colts have also supposedly improved their defense - which, like the Texas Rangers and pitching - has always been their Achilles heel. They added some big dude named Booger, and along with HOFer Sanders, they're the modern-day version of the Steel Curtain. Sorry - I ain't buying the whole deal.

All the pressure here is on Peyton and the Colts. They've finally got their home game that they've whined about for the last five years. Unfortunately, the hillbillies at the RCA Dome are going home sad tomorrow night, victims of another Brady-Belichick theft. Having OD'd on all the analysis and dissection this week, here are my keys to the game:

1) Laurence Maroney needs to be a factor. Look for the Pats to come out with a much more balanced offensive game plan between the pass and the run. The Colts are good at stopping the north-south type runner that Dillon is, so it's going to be imperative for Maroney to eat up some huge chunks of yardage and get into a groove. If he shows some success on the edge early on, look out. I also think he's going to do something special on a punt/kick return during this one.

2) The Pats D-line needs to get angry. The prideful unit of Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Green, Wright, et al, got pushed around last week by the massive Charger offensive line. Look for them to come out possessed and put a number of hits on Peyton. Getting him out of his rhythm starts with these guys, and they've been the anchor on D all year long.

3) Special teams. I know it's a cliche. Special team play is always crucial. And I know the Colts now have our Hall of Fame kicker. But I think New England will win the battle of field position in this one. Todd Sauerbrun has been a godsend, Stephen G kicks 'em off farther than Adam (keep it in bounds, please), and I like how our coverage team is playing.

4) Manning will throw more picks than Brady. Just a hunch, but if you had to make a bet on which QB will reverse this trend, wouldn't you go with Brady? I thought so.

What worries me? PLENTY. The noise is going to be insane. Reggie Wayne. Dallas Clark. A quick Colts lead. That the Pats had their Super Bowl last Sunday. That about sums it up. If the Colts ride the early emotional momentum and go up by 10 or 14 in the first half, it's over.

What excites me? That the whole country is sick of the Patriots. That this franchise has been to 4 of the last 6 AFC Championship games, a remarkable feat in any era, let alone the parity-ridden NFL of this decade. That Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won't lose to the Colts twice in one year. That the Colts will see something they've never seen before.

When they beat the Colts, the experts and naysayers across the land will all have to admit that we're witnessing the greatest modern-day dynasty in professional sports. I can't even process the hatred toward the Pats if they're fortunate enough to face America's Team, the Saints, in the Big Game.

Okay, enough with that kind of talk. Let's just say 6:30 can't come soon enough.

Patriots 28, Colts 19

First the Bolts, Now the Colts

Okay, so it's taken us a few days to digest and recap the remarkable game that took place out in San Diego last Sunday. That's what we like to do here - lay back in the weeds, carefully assess, and then put our own spin on it.

First of all, as Patriots fans, we have to remember sometimes how absolutely BLESSED we are. We have a chance to win our fourth Super Bowl in six years, and we almost forget that we lost one in 1997 during the Great Tuna Escape. Imagine that - we've gone from Rod Rust and Tommy Hodson to forgetting about a Super Bowl appearance! That's what the amazing Brady/Belichick combo has done to us. And we need to savor it.

Okay, that said, what a freaking ballgame last week. It had everything and I honestly don't know where to begin. So a few notes:

- The better team in terms of talent may not have won, but the better TEAM most certainly did. I know it's a cliche, but when you have guys like Antwain Spann and James Sanders contributing to a playoff win, it's a credit to the coaches and the mentality that pervades this organization - and it starts at the top. Take a bow, Bob Kraft.

- Tom Brady was terrible for the majority of this game, and he can thank Troy Brown profusely for removing the goat horns. The pick he threw with a little more than 6 minutes to go should have been the fatal blow, but Troy's defensive instincts (above) saved the day...

- ... as did the hare-brained "coaching" of Marty Schottenheimer. How dumb was he? Let us count the ways. Let's go for it on 4th and 11, and punt on 4th and 4. Let's listen to an over-eager rookie QB's pleas to review an obvious call so we can lose a timeout down the stretch. And if memory serves correctly, the Bolts had the ball with 4 minutes and change left, and the first play was a handoff to Tomlinson. Then, inexplicably, Philip Rivers throws two incompletions and it's fourth down very quickly. I don't understand how you don't just keep giving it to LT. I didn't know what Martyball was, but now I do. D-U-M-B.

- First half MVP for the Patriots? Hands down, Todd Sauerbrun. The Pats spent most of the first half operating out of their own end zone, and Sauerbrun came through huge with some booming blasts.

- No one's talking about the job the Chargers' O-line did, but we didn't hear the names Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, etc., much. No wonder LT had 73 TD's this year.

- Early on, I thought we might be headed for another Miami debacle, where Brady just looks confused for the whole game. His TD throw right before the half halted that thinking in its tracks. When you watch it again, the pass he thew to Gaffney was made on the run, off the wrong foot, and it was pinpoint accurate.

- Where were former Chargers' Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau for this one? I heard through the grapevine last week that Seau got into a little tussle out in a Cali bar before the game when some fans started dissing the Pats. Get him back here next year - it's interesting that we haven't seen any articles getting Rodney/Junior's thoughts on the Pats' postgame celebration.

- Stephen Gostkowski made a lot of Pats fans feel better with his confident, clutch kicks. I've stood over 10-foot putts on the muni course for $10 and my legs are shaking like a leaf. How about lining up a 31-yarder in a playoff game before 70,000 screaming fools and a national TV audience? Takes a special breed.

- And finally, back to that celebration. A couple of thoughts. First, I love that LT was pissed off after the game, and make no mistake, he was pissed because his team lost and his dream year went out the window. That's emotion, and I wish there was more of it in sports. I understand his anger over the Pats' celebration. Rosevelt Colvin, Ellis Hobbs, Daniel Graham, and Vince Wilfork all decided to head to mid-field after Nate Kaeding missed his FG, and they did a little (ok, a big) jig on the Charger logo. There were some imitations of Shawne Merriman's "Lights Out" dance. I think all of that is okay, and not just because I'm a Patriots fan. They won a game they didn't deserve to win, against all odds, and Christ, it's sports. However, making the choke sign in the direction of the Chargers (as Graham supposedly did), and yelling into the Chargers locker room after the game (Colvin) takes it a step too far. And LT implicating Belichick was lame. These two teams tangle next year, so circle that one.

- Regardless, the Patriots move on and can now win their 4th Super Bowl in six years - a feat that the Steelers pulled off in the late 70s, early 80s. Much more on the Pats-Colts game in the next few days.

The Fab Four

The best weekend in the NFL gets underway today, meaning it's almost time to put a stop to the overanalysis paralysis and just watch some football. It kills me how many fans, bloggers, etc., think they're experts in the area of X's and O's these days. For those keeping score at home, yours truly went a spectacular 4-0 last week and nearly predicted each game on the button. For this week's picks, thought we'd have a little fun with the boys from Liverpool.

The Ringo Starr Game
Seattle (+9) @ Chicago
Sunday, FOX, 1 p.m.

Ringo was always the odd duck in the group, the one who was there by accident. Great drummer, don't get me wrong, but he was the odd duck of the group and he should be sending a portion of his lifelong gratuities to Pete Best and George Martin. Like Rodney Dangerfield, Ringo never got any respect.

The Bears and Seahawks shouldn't be here either, for reasons too numerous to count. But because NFL rules stipulate that an NFC team must take part in the Super Bowl, these two mediocre teams are still alive. For the Bears, has there ever been a least respected 14-2 team in NFL history? Rex Grossman is Ringo Starr (actually, that's a huge insult to Ringo - I take it back) and the world is just waiting for another implosion, this time on a bigger stage. For Seattle, they wouldn't even be here this weekend if Tony Romo could've executed a simple field goal snap. The Bears will find a way to win this game - on the backs of their defense, of course - but I think Seattle keeps it close. Too bad they can't both lose. Bears 23, Seahawks 19

The George Harrison Game
@New Orleans (-5) vs. Philadelphia
Saturday, FOX, 8 p.m.

If anyone in the Beatles could be underrated and underappreciated, I always felt it was George. Dark, brooding, quiet - but when he branched out and wrote his own stuff, it was pretty damn good. No one's really talking about this game - the Colts/Ravens and Pats/Chargers are getting most of the air time - but this one could be awfully entertaining.

We all know about the great story of the Saints. The flooding from Katrina put the city of New Orleans on its backside, and it's still having trouble getting up. The emotional connection to the Saints has been played from every angle, and to have a team on the rise and going in the right direction has done wonders for New Orleans' psyche. On the field, I just feel like the Saints have too much talent not to beat Philly. They need to find a way to duplicate what they did against Dallas earlier in the year in that awesome Sunday night performance. The Eagles have been on an amazing run since Donovan McNabb went down, and they will put points on the board against the average Saints defense. But I think the run comes to a screeching halt in N'Awlins. Saints 34, Eagles 24

The Paul McCartney Game
New England (+5) @ San Diego
Sunday, CBS, 4:30 p.m.

Alright, stick with me here - the links to the Beatles are getting a little harder. I'm tying Paul to the Pats/Chargers game simply because when I think of McCartney, I think he was the flashiest of all the Beatles in terms of his singing and bass-playing skills. He and Lennon both had their own talents, of course, but Paul was never shy about showcasing his.

When you look at all four games this weekend, the one with the most obvious talent on the field - on both sides of the ball - is this game. In fact, this game could be the Super Bowl and I think NFL fans across the world wouldn't be disappointed. The Chargers have an all-world running back, an efficient QB, and a stout defense. The Pats have an all-world QB, a good RB tandem, and an even stouter defense. This one has been dissected and picked apart like that frog you had to maim in junior high biology class. In the end, and call me a homer, I think the Pats find a way to get it done.

Tom Brady is one of the biggest reasons why. The guy is a born leader, and one of the least discussed angles to this game is how the Pats' offensive line will need to submit its best performance of the year against the likes of Shawne Merriman, Shawn Phillips, etc. You just know Brady will have these guys fired up. I'm not saying the Chargers won't give Brady & Co. fits - they'll certainly have their moments - but I think the offense will do enough to win the game. When you look at the Chargers' dynamic offense, it really revolves around two guys - Tomlinson and Gates. Philip Rivers does a fine job, but the Chargers don't have the diversification of plays that the Pats have at their disposal. We've got two running backs capable of making big plays, and three tight ends who can hurt you at any time. It just seems to me that the Pats have more options on the table. I do have recurring nightmares of Vrabel and Bruschi chasing LT, but I'm taking the Pats to emerge victorious in one of the best games of the Brady/Belichick era. Patriots 30, Chargers 24

The John Lennon Game
@Baltimore (-4) vs. Indianapolis
Saturday, CBS, 4:30 p.m.

Again, maybe a stretch - but Lennon to me was the conflicted, brilliant one in the group. There were always forces colliding from within, and what greater two forces colliding on this NFL weekend than the Colts offense versus the Ravens' sick defense?

I haven't seen the Ravens play at all this year, so I can only go by what I've read and heard. The defense is probably the best we've seen in Baltimore, and that's saying something as we all know. But it's the offense - resurrected by Steve McNair - that makes the Ravens that much tougher. If the pathetic Chiefs were able to baffle Peyton Manning last week, what do you think the Ravens are capable of doing to the hayseed? By the end of this one, Peyton could be throwing the ball to anyone and may join his younger brother on the All-Color Blind team. It's not hard to Imagine a Ravens win. Ravens 22, Colts 14

Story Lines Galore

I can't get the Carly Simon song "Anticipation" out of my head. The Patriots - the dominant NFL franchise of this decade - play the Chargers - the best team in the NFL in 2006 - on Sunday, and it cannot come soon enough.

The story lines are abundant, going back to last year when SD coach Marty Schottenheimer openly wondered whether the Pats had sustained too many boo-boos to remain at the top after his team had whipped them. As you may recall, Tom Brady got a little agitated at ol' Marty.

This year, you have the best, most overhyped story in football (Chargers and LT) going against the story that's always under-reported (Pats' consistent success). As proof, the Chargers will send nine guys to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl, while the Pats will send one. Not saying it's not warranted, but that's always how these things work. As a subplot, Chargers QB Philip Rivers is on the AFC team, while Tom Brady - who should be there considering the patch job he's had to work with this year - won't be wearing a flowered shirt and lei.

In terms of X's and O's, you've got one of the league's best rush defenses (NE) against what may be the best running back our eyes will ever see (LT). The Pats counter with their best RB tandem in recent memory in Dillon and Maroney. You've got the smartest, most cunning QB in Brady going against a tremendous front line and outstanding linebackers. You've got three productive tight ends for the Pats (Graham, Watson, Thomas) going against the best in the game in Antonio Gates. And one that I wish could have come true - we could have seen former Chargers Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison knocking heads with their old franchise. Rodney was unceremoniously cut from SD a few years back and tell me he wouldn't have played with an even bigger chip on his shoulder than usual. Unfortunately, he's already been ruled out. (Damn you, Bobby Wade. Your penance will come.)

Anyway, it should be one hell of a game. Predictions and analysis to come.

Sympathy for the Devil

Alright, so I spent a fair amount of time last night with my buddy to the left - and it feels like Keith Moon's doing a drum solo in my skull right now. But I can tell you who I'm glad I'm not this morning, even though he may be waking up next to Carrie Underwood. One Anthony Romo. (Second place: Terry Glenn).

I mean, the poor bastard. I'm not a big fan of the Cowboys or anything, but I do have a heart somewhere beneath all that rum swimming around my upper body cavity. A 19-yard field goal to win the game and advance to the next round in the playoffs. A chip shot. A layup. A free lunch. And he f'd it up. I will say this - that ball looked awfully damn slippery on TV. But you obviously have to get that one down. Romo's roller-coaster season now includes goat horns of epic proportions.

The first game yesterday proved that the best strategy in predicting games is to take the anticipated story line and flip it on its head. Going into the game, the Colts couldn't stop Stevie Wonder from running the ball down their throats, and everyone thought points galore would be scored. What happened? The anemic Chiefs offense didn't record a first down until midway through the third quarter, and the Colts defense rose to the occasion, limiting Larry Johnson to 32 yards rushing.

So what are the story lines for today's games? It's a little murkier, but most people think Pats-Jets will be a barnburner, and the defenses will rule. So go with a Patriots blowout and the over. In the second game, the general consensus is that the Giants are one more minor speed bump on the way to the Super Bowl for the suddenly steamrolling Eagles. So in other words, you may want to give some love to the Jints today.

Playoffs??!!! Playoffs??!!!

In the immortal words of ex-Colts coach Jim Mora Sr., the NFL playoffs commence this weekend with four games on tap. Today, it's the Colts and their vaunted aerial attack against the Chiefs with Larry Johnson and a gargantuan offensive line. Tonight, the struggling Cowboys take on the Seahawks in Seattle. Tomorrow, it's a resumption of the Border War with our Patriots playing the J-E-T-S in Foxborough at 1, followed by Eagles-Giants at 4:30. As someone who picked all the games in this wacky, stupefying 2006 season, I am quite pleased there are only four to analyze this weekend. Following are my predictions for the first round, with some guest analysis (and then some) from a loyal reader on the Pats-Jets tilt.

SATURDAY

@Indianapolis (-7) vs. KC
TV: NBC, 4:30 p.m.
Whatever bonus money the Chiefs get for making the playoffs, they should immediately write a check to the Denver Broncos, who managed to self-implode over the last two weeks of the season, allowing KC to back into the tournament. The first thought when this matchup was announced was 'wow, Indy cannot stop the run (see Jacksonville, week 14) and they have to face Larry Johnson.' As the week has gone on, however, I've come to my senses and now realize that while LJ will get his yards, you can't bet against Peyton, Marv, and Reggie on their home field in the playoffs. Another factor is the emergence of Colts rookie RB Joseph Addai, who while not spectacular, has gotten the job done late in the season. The Colts also are expecting the return of apparently the single greatest DB who's ever played pro football in Bob Sanders. I don't know who Bob Sanders is, but everyone seems to talk about him like he's friggin' Ronnie Lott. Anyway, while I positively detest the Colts and their a-hole GM - and I think the Chiefs can keep it close for stretches - I'm going with Indy in this one. 31-20.

Dallas (+3) @Seattle
TV: NBC, 8:00 p.m.
All the "experts" seem to agree that this is the toughest game on the board. Two underachieving teams who lucked into the dance. Dallas, like their grumpy coach, is one big, fat enigma. They were world-beaters during the Tony Romo craze but have looked very ordinary of late. They're an enigma because of the sheer depth of talent they have. On offense, they've got the wideouts in T.O. and Terry Glenn, the stud TE in Witten, the gifted RB in Julius Jones, the smarts and strong arm with Romo. I think the biggest disappointment in Big D has to be the D, though. If I could buy stock in 'the Cowboys defensive coordinator will be fired after this season," I'd be loading up in a big way. The Cowboys have an impressive front line, good backers and a solid secondary led by Roy Williams. Just plain hard to figure them out. Seattle is another puzzle. They lost their leaders (Hasselback and Alexander) at various points during the regular season and have never really found their way. Deion Branch has been disappointing. When I look at this game and try to find the main reason to take the Seahawks, it's their ridiculous home-field advantage. When the crowd's roaring, you simply can't hear yourself think in that building. All that said, I'm going with the more talented Cowboys. Something's gotta give for this sinking ship and for some reason, I'm seeing T.O. come up big after the late-season griping about lack of touches. Dallas, 23-16.

SUNDAY

@New England (-8) vs. New York Jets
TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m.
(analysis and dissection courtesy of Jam) "I see Pats-Jets playing out one of two ways - both with Pats coming out victorious. First, the basics. Weather should not play a factor. Temps should be in the high 40's/low 50's and a quick check of the Doppler shows some high clouds but no precipitation until later in the night with a low pressure system moving in from the west. But, of course, New England weather is a crazy thing and could change. However, I don't see Mother Nature playing a factor in this game. It was great to see Pats QB Tom Brady throw the deep ball with some success last week against Tennessee, and the latest news indicates that the Jets left CB, Andre Dyson, will not play with a knee injury. He's probably their best cover guy. Their other 3 primary DB's are all 5'10" marginal players - Poteat, Miller and Barrett - and rookie Drew Coleman. Because of the past success the Pats have had on the ground against the Jets, I think the Jets will look to stop the run first. Contrary to most prognosticators, I actually see the Pats setting up the run through their passing game. I see them establishing the pass early in the game, and then we'll watch Dillon and Maroney all day. However, even if they don't establish the pass early, the Pats will still be able to run on the Jets. New York does not have a good run defense. Regardless, I expect the Pats to come out throwing - and successfully. I also see some big, game-changing deep plays through the air. The rags keep picking on the Jets O-line because they have two rookies, but I think they’re better than people think – allowing 34 sacks over the course of the season against some fairly tough defenses. Also, Pennington is smart picking up defenses; and with their short passing game he's not standing the pocket for long periods of time. The problem for the Jets O-line is that Mssrs. Wilfork, Warren, and Seymour are monsters along the defensive front line. I'm slightly concerned about Seymour's health. I haven't seen anything in the papers but he's been on the sideline a lot lately, probably due to the ongoing elbow problem. Wilfork is also nicked up, having missed the Pats’ last 3 games. I see the Pats coming out with their standard 3-4 defense, but I'd love to see them bring up their safeties - almost like a 3-5-2-1 to cut down on that pussy short game run by Chadwick Pennington. I'm sure we'll see some f'd-up zone coverages from the Pats, and blitz packages that come from the middle of the line (not the corner blitz) on 3rd and long. (As a side note, the Jet's have one of the better 3rd down conversion ratios in the AFC, but I attribute that to the fact that they aren't penalized a lot and have a lot of 3rd-and-short situations.). Getting back to the Jets offense ... they have been able to run the ball against the Pats - even with unspectacular and unknown running backs. And they have been able to move the ball through the air with Cotchery and Coles. My money says they will not be able to run the ball, and will have moderate success through the air. The absence of Rodney Harrison cannot be taken lightly. The Jets’ receivers are fast, and Rodney won’t be there to make them think twice. This makes it more important for Wilfork, Seymour and Warren to get to Pennington. They can't give Cotchery and Coles the time to get open and find the soft spots in the defense. Special teams and turnovers are always important. Jets’ return man Justin Miller is a Pro Bowler for a reason, but Maroney is also special (Pats are tops in the league in kickoff returns). New England will take care of the ball and defend against any big plays on special teams. This can always be a game f-er but I'm not seeing it this weekend. I think both teams will be able to move the ball with some success. However, Belichick will scheme a way to contain the Jets offense (especially in the red zone), and all the Pats need to do is execute on offense and they will run away with this game and then run out the clock in the 4th quarter. Look for Reche Caldwell to have another big day." 27-13 Pats victory.

New York Giants (+7) @Philadephia
TV: FOX, 4:30 p.m.
I know, I know - Philly and Jeff Garcia have been the late-season story in the NFL. And I still think they'll win this game, but I think it's going to be by a razor-thin margin and I say that because of one man: Tiki Barber. I don't care about the brilliance of Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson and all the crazy blitzes that team runs. Tiki can be a one-man wrecking ball when he wants to be, and though I hate him (had on my roto team all year - 2 TDs all season, 3 last week), there's something to be said for this possibly being his last game. I think he comes out possessed. Eli, of course, worries me in a big way but look for Tiki to take some of the pressure off. As for the Eagles, it's hard to bet against the momentum they have, the D they have, and the insane home crowd that will fill up Veterans Stadium or whatever the hell it's called these days. Eagles, 20-16.