Belichick-Mangini, Part III

The real season starts in a little more than 14 minutes, which is the amount of time remaining in a very boring Packers-Bears game. John Madden and Al Michaels just began their 72nd conversation tonight on the topic of whether Brett Favre will come back next year. What a joke - the guy will be back. Book it.

The playoff matchups are officially set, and there will be an intriguing grudge match with the Jets visiting Foxborough next Sunday. I can already see the stories this week in the local rags - the Belichick-Mangini feud, the HC of the NYJ, the references to Tuna's stint as the HC of the NYJ, the Chad Pennington and Troy Brown/"We Are Marshall" angles, etc. It's gonna be a fun week of reading.

The other AFC matchup next weekend puts the Kansas City Chiefs (thank you, Denver!) in Indy on Saturday to play the Colts. Larry Johnson must be licking his lips already waiting to run on that defense. In the weak-sister NFC, it's Giants-Eagles on Sunday, and Cowboys-Seahawks Saturday night. As always, should be verrrrry interesting.

Pats Romp in Nashville

The story line going into today's regular season finale revolved around to what extent Bill Belichick would mail it in for this one. The Pats already had the 4-seed wrapped up - with a potential first-round home playoff game against the Jets or the Broncos - and the goal at the end of the season (funny, the goal is the same during the pre-season) is to get through the last game injury-free. Thus, it stood to reason that Tom Brady would get a healthy blow after the unhealthy blow he took from a Jags LB last week. And it would have been perfectly logical to see reduced playing time for Laurence Maroney, who is coming off an injury, and for the stalwarts on D, guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, and Seymour. In fact, the Curly Haired one opined in the Globe today that the Patriots would totally mail it in. And of course, he was wrong.

If the Pats could elevate themselves to the three-seed, they'd probably get the Jets at home and then the Ravens on the road. At four, they'd play Denver at home and then have to travel to San Diego. The first path is easier, without question, and maybe that's why the Pats went with their regulars today longer than we all expected, and as a result laid the lumber on the playoff-hopeful Titans. Brady played three-plus quarters, Dillon and Maroney both ran effectively, and the D was its typical stingy self. The only problem was this Pacman Jones dude, who pretty much did whatever he wanted on kickoff and punt returns. Damn, he's good. In the end, the Pats won 40-23, and even ancient Vinny Testaverde got to throw a TD pass late in the game, one on which the Titans took umbrage. This was similar to coach Bill letting Flutie drop-kick last year against the Dolphins. Testaverde set a record with the TD pass, becoming the first QB in history to throw TD's in 20 straight seasons.

This one was also very chippy, which may partly explain why the Pats went for the final score with just over a minute left on the scoreboard. Pats safety Rodney Harrison was blocked low early in the game and left with an undisclosed injury. I didn't see the play - I was driving and had Gil and Gino on - but I read that Bruschi had a few choice words for the Tennessee sideline. I'm sure we'll be hearing more on this later. Two weeks in a row with mini-controversies. I wonder what the relationship is like between Belichick and Titans coach Jeff Fisher.

So now we're left to see how the Colts and Broncos fare in the 4:00 games. The Dolphins are giving Indy a battle, and it would certainly be sweet if the Pats could leapfrog the Colts into that third seed. Something tells me, though, that Peyton and his merry band of receivers will pull through. At last check, the Broncos were down to the 49ers, but with plenty of time to go. Not quite sure what happens if Denver blows it.

One more post tonight - before we turn the calendar and ring in 2007.

Let the Real Season Begin (NFL picks finale)

Well, another 9-7 weekly mark (hey, that would be far and away the best record in the NFC West) leaves the season record at 108-112-5. .500 is still in sight if I have my best week ever, though with the way this season has gone - the last Sunday in the NFL could put the exclamation point on what has been an absolute circus of a year. All you need to know is that it's still possible that a 7-9 NFC team could make the playoffs. Look for the playoff preview late Sunday night, sponsored by the MIT math club. The official playoff system is diagrammed on the right.

@Washington (+2.5) vs. NY Giants: Just for the sheer fun of watching the car crash that is the Giants. Yeah, it's a must-win game for them - once again - and yeah, they're probably more talented on paper than the Redskins, who are so bad that they're going to drive their Hall of Fame coach back to NASCAR. Logic says the Giants should rally and win - which is exactly why I'm picking the Redskins. (Saturday, TV, 8:00, NFL Network)

@Tennessee (-3) vs. New England: This may be the first time all year that I've gone against the Patriots, and I'm doing it because of the QB matchup. Vince Young vs. Matt Cassell. Yup, our golden boy Tom Brady is most likely going to sit out for a big chunk of this one after taking a hard hit last week against Jacksonville. With the Pats assured of at least the 4-seed in the AFC, there's simply no point risking the franchise. The leaders on D - Bruschi, Vrabel and Harrison - may also get a breather. On the other hand, Young has been absolutely amazing and with another win, can put his Titans in the playoff picture. Tennessee has much more to play for. (TV, 1:00, CBS)

Buffalo (+9) @ Baltimore: While everyone's talking about the Chargers, the Ravens are quietly emerging as a solid Super Bowl contender. They've always had the vicious defense, and now they've got Air McNair at the helm of the offense. All that said, I've been impressed with Buffalo's stick-to-itiveness this year and will take them to keep it somewhat close.

@New Orleans (+3) vs. Carolina: Let me get this straight - the Saints are getting three against the Panthers at home? I know New Orleans has already clinched a spot in the tournament, and my MIT math pals tell me that Carolina may still be alive, but still... the Saints demolished the Giants last week and will want to keep the momentum rolling as the playoffs start.

Green Bay (+3) @ Chicago: Will it be Rexie or Griese? Either way, the Bears have to be one of the least-respected No. 1 seeds of all time. They're heading into the playoffs with not a clue who their starting QB will be, which is a testament to their incredible defense. Will this be Brett Favre's last game in a Packers uniform? This game was moved to network TV and that's all we're going to hear about. Favre has a little Clemens in him - he'll be back. (TV, 8:15, NBC)

@Cincinnati (-6) vs. Pittsburgh: The Steelers had been on a major roll before they hit a speed bump known as the Ravens last week. Cincy, meanwhile, suffered a catastrophic loss last week in the snow in Denver when their holder couldn't catch the ball for an extra point. The Bengals' playoff hopes may have died in Denver, but they'll come out firing for this one.

Detroit (+12.5) @Dallas: What to make of the Cowboys' soap opera. A month ago, Tony Romo was the man, he was dating Jessica Simpson, Jerry Jones had a little kick in his step, and the Tuna was actually caught smiling on the sidelines. No more. Romo now has to settle for Carrie Underwood, Jones looks like a man who has eaten tainted seafood, Tuna is most definitely not smiling, and everyone on the Dallas offense is sniping about not getting enough touches. Somewhere, Drew Bledsoe is stifling a grin. The Cowboys would make a great NBA team. I'm going with the Lions to cover the dozen and a half. (TV, 1:00, Fox)

@Denver (-10.5) vs. San Francisco: Denver desperately needs this one and the shine seems to be wearing off the feel-good Niners. Perfect opportunity for Denver to put it together heading into the playoffs, where they will likely come to Foxborough next week to play the Patriots. Frank Gore could have some difficulty against Denver's strong rush defense. (TV, 4:15, Fox)

@Houston (-4) vs. Cleveland: Why is everyone wearing blue shirts at Texans Stadium? Oh, those are chair backs? I mean, it's New Year's weekend, and you're sitting home in Houston wondering what to do. Does Texans-Browns even make the top-20 list? What a stinker. On the bright side, maybe Romeo Crennel will come back to New England. Texans in a romp.

@Indianapolis (-9) vs. Miami: Peyton Manning vs. Cleo Lemon. Indy is the pick. (TV, 4:15, CBS)

@Kansas City (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville: Big game for both squads, whose playoff hopes are on life support. I was impressed with Jags RB Maurice Jones-Drew last weekend, but I can't root for good things to happen to caveman Jack Del Rio. Chiefs win a close one.

@NY Jets (-12.5) vs. Oakland: Lot of points, but the Jets know what's on the line today and won't be messing around. Art Shell's long nightmare is about to shut down... at least for a couple of months.

@Philadelphia (-8) vs. Atlanta: Philly may be playing the best ball of anyone right now - AFC or NFC - and they'll lay the lumber to the fraudulent, pathetic Falcons. Look for several Jeff Garcia fist-pumps throughout the course of this one. The Eagles put themselves in position to do some damage in the NFC dance.

St. Louis (-2.5) @Minnesota: The Rams have been your typical NFC team this year and need a win to close at .500. They'll be ready for this one on the road, and look for Steven Jackson to have a field day with a banged up Vikings defense. Whether it's good enough for the Rams to be in the playoffs, well, I'll again defer to my mathematician colleagues at MIT.

@San Diego (-13.5) vs. Arizona: The Chargers have been in the catbird seat all year long and will be looking to lock up home field throughout the playoffs. Again, lots of points to give up but these are the Arizona Cardinals after all. The Tomlinsons take it handily.

Seattle (+3.5) @Tampa Bay: The Seahawks could finish 8-8 this year and still host a playoff game in the first round. Unreal. Tampa Bay killed Cleveland last week, but everyone kills Cleveland. I'll take the Seahawks in this one.

Jack (Ass) Del Rio

Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio has made news around these parts lately for some of his moronic comments following last Sunday's Patriots win over his squad. In a game in which most of the officiating calls went his team's way, Del Rio chose to whine about the tremendous TD catch by Pats' backup TE David Thomas, and he cried about the last play of the game, where Pats' DE Jarvis Green stripped Jags QB David Garrard of the ball, which Rodney Harrison scooped up. On replay, the refs clearly got both calls right so I'm not sure what Del Rio was watching.

But the classless coach wasn't done there. Yesterday, he waxed poetic on the unnecessary hit that Tom Brady took from Jags LB Clint Ingram. Brady went down sliding, and Ingram came in late head-first, folding Brady's back like an accordion. Brady missed one down, then was back on the field. While the talk of the last couple of days has centered around whether Ingram should be fined for spearing, here's Coach Jack's idiotic take, courtesy of Jacksonville's website. Maybe Del Rio will end up getting fined for his inflammatory comments. Best of all, it looks like his lame team will be playing golf real soon - but Jack's pleased with their record over the last four years. Loser.

The Day After

Ah, one of my favorite days on the calendar - the chaos and hype has died down, the house is littered with toys, wrapping paper and ribbons, the crazies are out there trying to return the stuff they didn't want, and I'm sitting here at home on the first day of my annual Christmas/New Year's vacation, listening to the chuckleheads on the radio talk about the upcoming NFL playoffs. Oh, and the wife and kids are up at the in-laws this morning. Pure heaven, I tell you.

About those NFL playoffs. Our Patriots have assumed their given spot in this year's dance, and will be either the third or fourth seed in the AFC. This means they'll host a playoff game the weekend of January 6-7, with the opponent most likely being a) Denver or, less likely, b) the Jets of Eric Mangenius.

Of course, the Pats got there with a sweet win on Sunday (football on Christmas Eve RULES) against the tough Jacksonville Jaguars. This one was entertaining as hell. The Pats got off to a quick lead, but let the Jaguars back in at the end. It had diving TD catches by backup tight ends, electric runs by both teams' running backs, impressive piloting from Brady, back and forth ref calls, missed field goals, and - for good measure - a mini-Tuck Rule controversy at the end of the game that went in our favor. If you were gathered with family and friends - and tipping a few back - it was a lot of fun to watch, even if the last couple of minutes tested your buzz.

What's more, while the Pats didn't blow out a quality team, they did beat a quality AFC team on their own turf. With two weeks to go before the playoffs, New England stands as good a chance as anyone to be playing the Tomlinsons in the AFC title game. They're getting healthier at the right time (both Rodney Harrison and Laurence Maroney returned on Sunday, and Vince Wilfork and Ben Watson should be ready for the post-season) and while Brady hasn't been sharp this year, he seems to be developing a better rapport with his Whitman's sampler of receivers. As Mike Reiss points out in the Globe today, the Pats went back to ball distribution against the Jaguars, with Brady involving all receievers in the game plan - much like the demolition job they did on the Vikings on that Monday night earlier in the year. In other words, the Pats are right where they've always been this time of year - eyeing a strong postseason run with the hopes (albeit more distant in this Year of the Charger) of adding more hardware to the Gillette Stadium lobby.

As fans, that's really all we can ask for isn't it?

Season's Beatings (NFL, Week 16)

Things started off so promising last week. Through the first nine games I picked, I was 8-1 and things were looking mighty rosey. Then it got ugly quick (thanks, Saints) and I finished 1-6 over the final seven. A true closer I am. Anyway, that puts the season record at 99-105-5. In the NFL's never-ending quest to put football on as many days of the week as they can, we've already had a Thursday and a Saturday game. I would have taken the Packers Thursday night (and would've lost against the spread) and I would have taken the Chiefs last night (a win). So the mark is even heading into what promises to be a great Christmas Eve day of pigskin. Think about it - you're gathered with family, you're just getting ready to strangle your annoying-as-hell sister in law, and then the Pats come on the tube. Thank you, NFL, and Merry Christmas to all. And to all a good bet.

New England (+3) @Jacksonville: Let's get the big one out of the way. There are four games on the board today that should be entertaining - this one, Buffalo vs. Tennessee, the Pittsburgh-Baltimore bloodbath, and Denver-Cincy. The Patriots always play well when they absolutely have to, and while the Jaguars physicality (is that a word) scares me, David Garrard (a new member of the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars) doesn't. And their hummel, Fred Taylor, is sitting this one out. On the other side, we may see the return of Rodney Harrison and Laurence Maroney. I'm going with the Patriots to seal the AFC East and put themselves in the dance for the 27th year in a row. (TV, CBS, 1:00)

@Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. Baltimore: Lots of folks are going with Baltimore, thinking the white-hot Steelers are due for a meltdown, but I'm not buying it. The Steelers still have something to play for, they're at home, and Bill Cowher deserves strong coach of the year consideration after the pitiful start these guys got off to. An old-time football game goes to the Steelers.

Carolina (+6.5) @Atlanta: I can't take the Falcons giving six and a half, ever, never. I hate them, and I can't imagine what it's like to be a Falcons fan. Carolina has been a huge disappointment this year (want a mulligan on that Super Bowl pick (Panthers vs. Dolphins) SI? The Panthers find a way to cover.

@Detroit (+5.5) vs. Chicago: There's nothing left to do in ChiTown but wait to see how bad Rex Grossman performs in the playoffs. In Detroit, the push is on to try and save Matt Millen's job - or is it? Wait, maybe I want a mulligan on this one. I'll stick with the Lions.

Indy (-9) @Houston: Indy is revving it back up just in the (St.) nick of time. There are still huge questions about their defense, but if Peyton and the boys can click like they did last week against the Bengals, the D can be soft and they can still win. The Colts are still playing for good seeding, so they'll demolish the Texans.

New Orleans (+3) @NY Giants: Two Jekyll and Hyde teams, and I wanted to kill the Saints last week. The way to succeed in picking NFL games this year? Take the big story/performance from last week and bet against it this week. The Saints have already backed into the playoffs and the Giants have been playing must-win games since October. I just don't think Eli Manning is good. Saints are the pick.

@Cleveland (-3) vs. Tampa Bay: Yucccch. Browns. Because we have to.

@Buffalo (-4.5) vs. Tennessee: Okay, this is a problem. These two teams have been stories for a couple of weeks now, with Losman-Evans and the tenacious D carrying the Bills, and Vince Young's legs carrying the Titans. This should be a pretty fun ballgame, but I think the Bills are more balanced on both sides of the ball. They get the call.

@St. Louis (-2) vs. Washington: Yucccch, part two. Rams. Because we have to.

@San Francisco (-4) vs. Arizona: Another guy who deserves coach of the year is Mike Nolan of the 49ers. San Fran hasn't been in the race all year long, but man they've been competitive. Maybe that's all Frank Gore, but it has to be more. It's the essence of moreness. (TV, FOX, 4:00)

@Denver (-3) vs. Cincinnati: While the skiiers here in the northeast complain about no snow, Denver just got about 15 feet of the stuff in the span of three days. People were stranded at Denver International Airport. The Bengals left on Tuesday in buses and are due to arrive at Mile High just before game time. They'll get whipped by the new John Elway and the Broncos. (TV, CBS, 4:00)

@Seattle (+4) vs. San Diego: This is where I'm going against a big story from last week. I know - the Chargers have been a big story all year long, but they may have peaked last week. Don't get me wrong - I like them and super-back LT in the playoffs, especially at home, but I'm thinking the Seahawks and their rabid fans might steal one here.

Philadelphia (+7) @Dallas: Game one of a Christmas Day doubleheader. The Cowboys, after being the story du jour the last few weeks, have come back to earth at the same time Jerry Garcia has been leading the Eagles back into playoff contention. I keep thinking about all those hardened Eagles bloggers who buried their team the day Donovan McNabb and his torn ACL were carted off the field. My how things have changed in a hurry. Philly's playing with renewed passion, and they should cover the 7 here. (TV, NBC, 5:00)

NY Jets (+1) @Miami: I'm picking both home favorites to lose. A must-win game for the Jets and they will find a way in a tough place to play. (TV, ESPN, 8:30)

Theo's Shopping List, NFL Week #15

Capping off a busy week in the nation, Sox GM Theo Epstein yesterday announced the signings of two setup men, both of whom toiled for the Angels last season. They traded minor league lefty Phil Seibel for Brendan Donnelly, and they also picked up lefty J.C. Romero, who was previously mentioned in trade talks with the Twins for the since departed Bill Mueller. One thing about Theo - once he sets his sights on a player, he's pretty damn persistent. Both Donnelly and Romero have probably had their best years, but they're still good pickups, and now the Sox may be able to move a young reliever to find the final piece on their off-season shopping list -- a bona fide closer. If Theo can somehow snag Chad Cordero from the Nationals, they become a clear-cut favorite in the AL.

Now let's talk some pigskin. After a promising start, last week's record finished at 9-7, so the season total is now 90-98-5. I am determined to get to .500. The 49ers came through on Thursday night so we're already one up. We've also got some Saturday night football on tap.

Dallas (-3.5) @ Atlanta: After getting embarrassed on national TV last Sunday night (what does Saints coach Sean Payton have against the Tuna? The onside kick was salt in the wound), look for Dallas to bounce back. Atlanta has started to play better, but the Cowboys simply have more talent on both sides of the ball. (TV, Saturday, NFL Network, 8 p.m.)

@Baltimore (-11.5) vs. Cleveland: The Art Modell Memorial Bowl series continues. I'm hesitant to take the Ravens laying this many points, but the Browns are trying to put themselves into the Brady Quinn sweepstakes. They have been God-awful lately. Meanwhile, Air McNair showed signs of his old self last week. Go with the Ravens.

@Green Bay (-5) vs. Detroit: I really like the Pack in this one. Last game of the year at Lambeau, Favre wants to put on a good show, facing a division rival that just lost its No. 1 running back. All signs point to a fairly decisive Green Bay win.

@New England (-11) vs. Houston: Last week's loss was hands down the most pathetic offensive display I've seen in the Belichick/Brady Era. The entire team looked like it had spent the previous night dancing on the bar at Mango's in South Beach. It's also been an interesting week for Brady. He called out his team on Wednesday, then ended his relationship with actress Bridget Moynahan. She's cute and all, but personally I've always felt he could do better. It says here the Patriots respond in a big way. And Tom and Bridge will be just fine. (TV, CBS, 1 p.m.)

@Tennessee (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville: Both teams have been playing well, and if form holds this should be an exciting game to watch. The Jaguars could be the proverbial team nobody wants to play in the postseason, but I'll ride the Vince Young bandwagon for at least one more week. The Titans are the call, and it easily could come down to a field goal.

@Buffalo (-1) vs. Miami: Who the hell knows? Both teams can look good, both can look dreadful. Could be a letdown game for the Dolphins, so I'll take the Bills to win at home.

NY Jets (+3) @ Minnesota: Both teams are still alive for a playoff spot. The Jets have had a roller-coaster year, but they've been able to bounce back from tough losses like last week's thumping at the hands of the Bills. The Vikings put it all together last week against the cowardly Lions, and may be starting to find a groove. In the end, I think a decent AFC team beats a decent NFC team. Jets are the call.

Pittsburgh (-2) @ Carolina: Not sure what the status is on Jake Delhomme's thumb injury but if the Steelers are facing Chris Weinke, this could get ugly. You have to give Bill Cowher credit. His team won't be playing in January, but he's still finding a way to get them fired up to win. I'll take the Steelers.

@Chicago (-13) vs. Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers may as well be sacrificial lambs heading into the Colosseum to meet their violent end. The Bucs are celebrating their 30th anniversary in style. Even though the Bears have nothing to play for, this should be a shellacking.

@New Orleans (-10) vs. Washington: Their performance last Sunday night showed just how good the Saints can be when they're clicking on all cylinders. They absolutely destroyed the Cowboys in Big D, and they did it without Joe Horn. Drew Brees should be the league's MVP this season. All they need is for their defense to be average and they could make a strong run from here on out. The Saints will keep the good times rolling.

@Arizona (+3) vs. Denver: Would you ever imagine that the lowly Cardinals would be underdogs by only three to the Denver Broncos? Arizona plays well in front of the hometown patrons, and look for Matt Leinart to outduel fellow rook Jay Cutler.

@NY Giants (-5.5) vs. Philadelphia: The Giants have gone through their near-death experience and lived to tell about it. They're getting healthier and should take this one against their hated rival. If they don't, Tom Coughlin's going to pop a forehead vein. (TV, Fox, 4:00)

Oakland (-2) @ St. Louis: Wow, has St. Louis fallen quickly in the last several years. This current Rams edition bears absolutely no resemblance to the great Ram teams of the late '90's and early '00's. I'm not saying the Raiders are any great shakes, either, but they will beat the hapless Rams.

@San Diego (-9) vs. Kansas City: Think there'll be a few handoffs in this game? LT should pad his new NFL touchdown record, and LJ may rise to the occasion to show the world that he's pretty good too. In the end, the Chargers beat a division rival at home convincingly. San Diegans can't wait for the playoffs to start. (TV, 8:00, NBC)

Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Indianapolis: Best Monday night game of the year, which isn't saying much. The Bengals have been in a major groove, while the Colts have been obliterated by injuries and can't seem to find their winning ways. Great QB matchup. Carson Palmer and the Bengals take it. (TV, Monday, ESPN, 8:30)

Sox Get Their Man

Hello, Boston. After a whirlwind courtship involving the standard posturing, surprise cross-country trips, and a suitcase full of cold, hard cash, the Red Sox finally landed their man yesterday. As a Nation waited with bated breath - and clicked repeatedly on Boston.com for hourly updates - the news quickly spread that Japanese gunslinger Daisuke Matsuzaka had indeed boarded John Henry's plane with Theo and Larry for the trip back to Boston - essentially meaning that a deal was thisclose. Eager newshounds could even track the friggin' flight as it made its trek home. In the end, the Dice-man agrees to a 6-year, $52 million deal, meaning the Red Sox have ponied up a total of more than $103 million for a man who's never stepped foot on a big league mound.

That said, there is unbridled excitement in the Hub over this deal and count me as being totally on board. D-Mat was immediately indoctrinated in the frenzy that is Red Sox baseball - with news cameras recording his every move - but he seems like a guy who not only can handle the attention, but can thrive in this environment. One other interesting side note - the circus that is sure to follow his every step may take some of the glare off our mercurial left fielder.

In other news, the Sox officially welcomed Julio Lugo to the fold, and just have to work out some last-minute details in J.D. Drew's contract. The rumors about Rocket Roger continue, and Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal suggests today that the Sox wouldn't be averse to trading Josh Beckett for a proven closer. Never a dull minute in the Nation. And we're loving every minute of it.

(Quick NFL note -- The Seahawks are playing the Niners tonight and are favored by 9. I'll go with the 'dog getting the points.)


(Boston Globe/Boston.com photo)

Humble Pie (Week 14 NFL Picks)

That's what I get for puffing out my chest and actually implying that I may know what I'm doing when it comes to picking these crazy-ass games. Nobody does. MSNBC's resident expert - former Cowboy tight end Jay Novacek - is 126-66 in games picked this year, but the pansy doesn't do spreads, just winners. Lame prick. For me, it's been two steps forward, five steps back all year long. Last week was totally back-asswards as I went a gaudy 4-12. This puts the season mark at 81-91-5.

Sadly, my loss column has already grown by 1 this week as I took the Cleveland Browns (the Cleveland Browns) to cover 9 against the Steelers on Thursday night. Bad idea. Here are some more (probable) bad ideas for Week #14.

Baltimore (+3) @ Kansas City: Both teams are coming off terrible losses, and I understand the Chiefs have a college-like home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium. Poor Larry Johnson gets no pub thanks to LT's heroics this year in San Diego. This game comes down to who the better team is, and I'm thinking you're going to see a better overall effort from the Ravens than we saw last Thursday night. They've had plenty of time to regroup.

Atlanta (-3) @ Tampa Bay: The Falcons have been the epitome of a Jekyll and Hyde teams this year. They finally won a game decisively last week and they still have something to play for. They should school the Bucs' rookie QB. I'm going with a hungry Atlanta squad.

@Detroit (-1.5) vs. Minnesota: Another Norris Division battle. Yes, the Patriots freely admitted they were lethargic last Sunday, but if you watched the game, you also had to be impressed with some of the Lions' offensive plays. Dat crazy Mike Martz knows what he's doing.

Tennessee (+1) @ Houston: If they had a mulligan, do you think the Texans would consider taking Vince Young - or even Reggie Bush - over Mario Williams with the No. 1 pick? If they didn't, the entire scouting department should be shown the door. Then you find that Young is from the Houston area, and it blows your mind that they didn't take him. Think of all the tickets he'd sell. Supposedly, this game is the most sought-after ticket since the Texans' opener several years ago, and word has it the angry locals are going to be cheering for the Titans and their electric QB. It could get a bit awkward in the Texans' owners box today.

@Jacksonville (+1) vs. Indianapolis: I'm going with a mild upset here. The Colts haven't been playing good ball lately, and the Jags know they're on a tight leash if they want to be playing when it really counts. Peyton and his band of receivers will get their stats today, but the Jags imposing D will make yards tough to come by for Colts RB Joseph Addai.

NY Giants (E) @ Carolina: An intriguing matchup to say the least. Two talented teams spiraling downward, scratching and clawing to make the playoffs. And yet lots and lots of warts on both sides. Jake Delhomme's hurting but he'll play today - the stakes are too high. Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams is rapidly becoming a weapon, but if Michael Strahan is back today - as some think he will be - that gives the Giants an extra push at the line. Giants are the pick, but it should be an entertaining game.

@Cincinnati (-10.5) vs. Oakland: Next to the Chargers and the Cowboys, the Bengals may be playing the best on both sides of the ball right now. Carson Palmer is the definition of a pro quarterback. They will whip the Raiders, the only question is by how much. If the game was in Oakland, I'd think twice about the Raiders putting up a better fight. They'll go down hard today as Cincy continues to steamroll toward a playoff berth.

Philadelphia (-1) @ Washington: The Battle of Who Cares? Philly snuck out a last-minute win against Carolina on Monday night and they've had a short week to get ready. The Redskins are making coach Joe Gibbs daydream about NASCAR. Who knows which way this ugly game will turn. Because we have to select one team, we'll pin our hopes on the Eagles.

New England (-3.5) @ Miami: This is traditionally a tough game, but coming off last week's sleepwalk victory over Detroit, something tells me Coach Bill will have his guys ready to play better in a road division game. Laurence Maroney is officially out of this one, so we may see the Pats' depth at RB today. Miami will hang tough, but the Patriots pull away in the end. (TV, CBS, 1:00)

@San Francisco (-4.5) vs. Green Bay: I can just hear Chris Berman's angle on this one. A matchup of two former dynasties who have fallen on hard times. Steve Young is now analyzing the games next to Berman, while Favre's still calling the shots for the woeful Packers. And therein lies the problem. The 49ers have shown promise this year, and RB Frank Gore is emerging as the real deal. The Pack, well, they've shown up... kind of. San Francisco takes it.

Seattle (-3) @ Arizona: After their big win in Denver last Sunday night, the Seahawks are playing with renewed confidence with both Hasselbeck and Alexander back on the field. Everyone keeps talking about the Bears and the Cowboys in the pathetic NFC, but I think the Seahawks may be coming together at just the right time. Look for them to win by 7 in the desert. (TV, FOX, 4:00)

@NY Jets (-3.5) vs. Buffalo: Wish I had a dish so I could watch this one. This should be a pretty good ballgame. The Jets have been playing well and the Bills have been holding their own. A battle of two good defenses here, but I'll take Chad Pennington over J.P. Losman. J-E-T-S.

@San Diego (-7.5) vs. Denver: The consensus is that the Chargers are the best team in football, despite the spotty record of their coach. LaDainian Tomlinson is in a league of his own. The Chargers also play very well at home, and would like nothing better than to secure a first-round bye. Denver, meanwhile, is still trying to adjust to their new QB. Let's just say he didn't look very good in his debut last week against Seattle. (TV, 4:15, CBS)

New Orleans (+7.5) @ Dallas: With the new flexible TV schedule - in which NBC can have their pick of games - who would have ever thought they'd pick the Saints? The Cowboys have been playing out of their minds, and the Saints have already clinched most improved team of 2006. Logic says the Cowboys have to submit a subpar performance soon. I think Dallas wins this one, but I'll take the Saints to cover. (TV, 8:15, NBC)

@St. Louis (+6) vs. Chicago: Finally, a somewhat decent Monday Nighter. It's fun to watch the weekly car crash that is Rex Grossman. The Bears should win a tight one, but six points is too much for a Grossman-led offense to cover. I'm going with the Rams. (TV, 8:30, ABC)

Drewgo

I've never considered myself a contrarian - to the contrary, actually - but I think I may be in the minority regarding the popular vote on yesterday's acquisitions of OF J.D. Drew and SS Julio Lugo. Forget about the ridiculous dollars for a moment, and don't compare J.D. to the other J.D. Different market, different year, and the long-haired J.D. is absolutely kicking himself over his poor timing. And let's forget about the ludicrous revolving door we've seen at shortstop since 2004.

Instead, let's focus on the present. The Red Sox could not go into the 2007 season with either Jason Varitek or Mike Lowell or Wily Mo Pena as their No. 5 hitter. There was nothing worse last year than watching Manny and Ortiz get on, and then become part of the LOB ledger. And it happened A LOT. Could they have plugged Bobby Abreu nicely into that slot? Absolutely, but after watching the erratic pitching last year, I truly believe that Theo assessed matters at the trading deadline and made the call that his team was going to be golfing in October. So he decided to pass on the Abreu/Cory Lidle package, the latter of whom has since tragically perished in a plane crash.

Surveying the free agents on the market this off-season, Theo wanted that No. 5 bat and he also wanted to improve the outfield defense, which was positively atrocious last year. The guy who gave him the most ability in both areas? J.D. Drew. If he stays healthy, and I understand what a huge 'if' that is, fans will come to appreciate his skills with the glove and he'll be a more than adequate five-hitter. In a way, and Chad at Touching All the Bases brings this up, maybe the atmosphere in Boston will make him even better than he's been. I'll take 140 GP, .280 BA, 15-20 HRs, 80-90 RBIs, and a solid glove. Is that worth $14M per? Is anything?

Lugo has long been the apple of Theo's eye, and most pundits really can't figure out why. He will not make us forget Alex Gonzalez anytime soon in the field, but Theo seemed bent on improving the offense from 1 through 9 and Lugo helps to accomplish that. He brings an element of speed to the table, and people are forgetting that he's played virtually his entire career with a glorified Triple-A team. Put him in a real major league lineup and let's see what he can before we judge. If Coco can regain his 2005 form, it will make Lugo that much better. Those two could be fun to watch at the top of the order.

As for the Manny charade, the latest scuttlebutt is that the man-child is staying. I applaud Theo for sticking to his guns and trying to get best value. For all his warts, you can't let this guy go for average talent. There's still a chance that he moves on, but the latest signals coming from Disney World indicate that teams are backing off. If Manny does leave, the signing of Drew becomes much more questionable.

The next steps? Signing Dice-K and finding someone to close the deal on his surefire 20 wins (ok, I'll settle for 17). Eric Gagne's name has been bandied about. A lower-base, incentive-laden deal could be intriguing.

Nostradamus-san (NFL picks, Week 13)

In the spirit of the sudden movement to sign Japanese ballplayers to come work in the Hub, I offer you this Japanese term to describe the trend line in my NFL predictions: kaizen. That's right, gradual improvement. Two weeks ago, it was 9-7. Last week, 10-6. So the pressure is on to go 11-5 this week. The season mark has climbed to 77-79-5. One small disclaimer before we get to the picks. I didn't get this up in time for the Thursday night Cincy-Baltimore bore-a-thon, but I have my witnesses who will vouch for the fact that I liked the Bengals giving three points. So I'm counting that one as a win.

Minnesota (+9) @ Chicago: I think the Bears win this battle of Norris Division rivals, but the Vikings cover the 9. Back when Rex was on a roll - which seems like eons ago - the Bears steamrolled the Vikes and some Minnesota players took issue with Grossman's trash-talking during that game. Can you imagine Rex Grossman trash-talking anyone? Anyway, the Vikings are using Rex's actions for motivation this week which could translate into a modereately competitive game. If Grossman submits another dud, it will be fascinating to see if the 'play Griese' debate ratchets up.

@Pittsburgh (-7) vs. Tampa Bay: This one's tough to call because both squads are D-O-N-E. Two fiery coaches in Cowher and Gruden. Two QB's who played their college ball for small Ohio schools - Roethlisberger at Miami and Gradkowski at Toledo. And two good RB's in Willie Parker and Cadillac Williams. If both teams had played to their recent standards, this would be one of the better games on the board. Sadly, it just doesn't matter. Take the Steelers at home just for pride's sake.

@St. Louis (-6.5) vs. Arizona: The Rams are still alive by the slimmest of margins so this one's a call for the team that still has something to play for. The Denny Green death march moved into a new phase this week, with breathless rumors that USC coach Pete "Jacked and Pumped" Carroll might be a good fit in the desert with Matt Leinart. Honestly, if you were Pete Carroll - and could recruit anyone you want and hang around with a bevy of hot Southern Cal women - would you go coach a crappy football team run by an inept owner? Money talks, but I think I'd stay in Cali. PS: Has anyone seen Edgerrin James?

Indianapolis (-7.5) vs. Tennessee: The Colts looked awfully efficient Sunday night against a depleted Eagles team, and that was with Peyton handing off more than he actually passed. Joseph Addai officially announced his presence with authority. The Titans have been playing everyone tough, and Vince Young is going to be a treat to watch for many years to come - but I'm thinking Indy wants to put on a better show than the last time they met the Titans, when they won by one point in Week 5.

@Miami (-1) vs. Jacksonville: If Joey Harrington hasn't caught a cold from his Gatorade shower on Thanksgiving vs. the Lions, this one should go down as a W for the Dolphins. They're not going to be playing in the Big Game in their own city - as some national publications predicted - but they have been playing better. Plus, Jacksonville just plain sucks. I hate them and their stupid, suit-wearing coach. (see explanatory comments in Tennessee vs. Houston, Week 8)

@New Orleans (-7) vs. San Francisco: The Saints have a one-game lead on the Jekyll and Hyde Panthers, and they should be ready to protect that lead at home against San Francisco. Speaking of suit-wearing coaches, with 49er man Mike Nolan be decked out again? I'd love to see a weekly theme - maybe this week wear the Bear Bryant houndstooth hat to cap it off. Designed by Reebok, of course.

@Washington (-1.5) vs. Atlanta: The Redskins' win over Carolina last week made you wonder what the wise guys in Vegas knew that the rest of us jamokes didn't. The Panthers were favored by 6 on Monday and the line gradually shrank down to 4. I'll go with the 'Skins in this one, as they'll give the double-bird to Mike Vick and the fraudulent Falcons.

Kansas City (-5.5) @ Cleveland: The Chiefs are my pick of the week. I still haven't gotten my arms around Larry Johnson's white coach/black coach comments (something about how it's hard for black players to take orders from white coaches?) so don't know what effect that hubbub might have on the game - which coincidentally pits two black coaches in Herm Edwards and Romeo Crennel. I just know the Chiefs have been playing pretty well and the Browns are in a state of disarray.

@New England (-13.5) vs. Detroit: Little bit reluctant to give this many points because the Patriots typically don't blow anyone out. But then my mind goes back to the Green Bay thumping, and we all know the Lions are way worse than the Packers. After all, Matt Millen - the guy who infamously battled with Pats' owner Pat Sullivan 30 years ago - is still somehow calling the shots in Motown. This could be ugly, and we could see Tommy Brady laughing and joking on the bench by the start of the fourth.

San Diego (-6) @ Buffalo: Along with the Pats and Chiefs, the Chargers are my next favorite pick this week. They tangled in a close one with the Raiders last week and this week they're getting Shawne Merriman back. They're also vying for a playoff bye and home-field advantage, and they're 5-0 at home. Lots on the line. LaDainian Tomlinson. Chargers.

NY Jets (-1) @ Green Bay: As much as it pains me to say this, I'm impressed with what the Jets and Eric Mangini have done this year, especially their defense. Green Bay is coming off a short week, which is always tough. I like the Jets to keep hope alive.

Dallas (-3.5) @ NY Giants: There's a tide of thought that thinks the Giants rise from the ashes this week and that the Cowboys have to lose sometime. I just can't logically see it happening this week. Of all the NFC slop, Dallas has looked the best by a long shot over the last four weeks. They also don't have Vanderjerk to kick around anymore.

@Oakland (-3) vs. Houston: Can you imagine being an underdog to the Oakland Raiders? What a slap. I can't bring myself to offer any coherent thoughts on this one, which will probably end up being the greatest game in the rich history of the National Football League.

@Denver (-4) vs. Seattle: Mile High or whatever the hell it's called these days will be buzzing for the long-awaited debut of Jay Cutler. Seattle got its thoroughbreds back last week, so this should be a very fun, competitive game. The Broncos take it on the backs of their rowdy fans and their new-found QB.

Carolina (-3) @ Philadelphia: Carolina's like a box of chocolates. They should be truffles on Monday night against Jeff Freaking Garcia and the Eagles. Take the Panthers and the three. But don't hold me to it.

A Win is a Win is a Win...

Imagine how good the Bears would be if they had Tom Brady calling the signals? Fortunately for us, they don't. They've got Rex Grossman - aka Train Rex as the Chicago Tribune called him on Monday - and they may become the first clear-cut conference leader to change QB's on the fly in like, a really, really long time. I mean, the Bears are 9-2 and they're calling for Grossman's head. Could we see a Romo/Cutler deal in the Windy City? Brian Griese is the alternative, so it may be awhile.

Bears fans are screaming bloody murder because while their team definitely played well enough to win on Sunday - Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are an underrated RB tandem and their defense came as advertised - their QB is just killing them. He threw three picks, all to Pats CB Asante Samuel, including the game-ending heave he tossed just after the Bears recovered a huge Corey Dillon fumble will 1:30 to go in the game. Has anyone seen Rex and Eli Manning in the same room together?

To be fair to Rexy, the game itself was filled with turnovers. As a buddy noted Monday morning, it was an alternately fun, frustrating, positively bizarre football game. I mean, Tom Brady - never to be confused with Mike "Two Fingers" Vick as a runner - made the big play of the game, scrambling for a first down late in the game and juking Brian Urlacher badly in the process.

Looking ahead, you have to think that the Bears, Cowboys, or Seahawks (who got Hasselbeck and Alexander back this week) will represent the NFC in Miami come February. The AFC, on the other hand, is wide open with the Colts, Ravens, Chargers and Pats near the head of the class, and the Chiefs and Broncos looming as possibilities. Could we see a 20th anniversary rematch of the Bears and Pats, hopefully with a much different outcome? If Rexy's still the pilot, count on it.

By The Numbers

Some interesting stats to ponder as we eagerly wait for the Bears-Patriots showdown:

- All of the Pats' 7 wins this year are against teams currently with losing records

- The team has installed FieldTurf in the two weeks that have passed since the Mud Bowl against the Jets. Tom Brady is 19-1 on turf in his career.

- The Pats have won 17 of their last 19 games vs. the NFC

- Since 2001, New England is 33-6 after Thanksgiving

- The Chicago Bears, a team that has been in existence since 1920, has only played the Patriots in Foxboro twice -- in 1988 and 1997. The Pats won those two games by a combined score of 61-10. Of course, the Bears made up for that discrepancy in January 1986 in a bigger game.

- When the Pats are on offense today, they have to protect the ball at all costs. The Bears have 29 takeaways this season, which have resulted in an amazing 119 points.

- Everyone's talking about the ferocious Bears' defense, which has given up an average of around 12 points per game this year. Quietly, the Pats' D has given up an average of 13.

- Wanna bet Belichick had the Pats focusing on third down conversions this week? They're in the back of the pack at 41% converted, while the Bears have allowed 28% to opponents.

J.D. Coming, Manny Going?

There hasn't been a peep about the ongoing negotations between the Sox and Dice-K, but today we read in the Globe that the team is closing in on signing J.D. Drew. Gordon Edes is reporting that Drew's asking price is $14 million per, and he's looking for a long-term (4 yrs. or more) deal. That's a lot of clams for a guy who is perpetually hurt, and has only touched the 100-RBI mark once in his career. They are no doubt mesmerized by his .400+ OBP over the last three years. Don't get me wrong - I understand that Drew is a big upgrade over Trot and can see him easily sliding into the 5-hole in the lineup. But it's only a good move if Manny stays on board, and we're hearing all sorts of buzz that he's being shopped around again, this time with more interested suitors.

In his blog today, ESPN's Buster Olney has items on both Drew and Manny, saying that the former may lack the intestinal fortitude to be a success in pressure-packed Boston.

The Tryptophan Effect: NFL Picks, Week 12

Turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie, booze, annoying aunts, uncles and cousins... and it all revolves around football. Thanksgiving is hands down the most underrated holiday on the calendar. All you need to do is get your arse to the dining table, compliment the chef, drink a few beers, and watch grown men try to kill each other from the comfort of your plush sofa. I now understand why all my uncles took naps following the Turkey Day dinner. The bird contains tryptophan, which makes you drowsy. Have insomniacs tried this?

Anyway, I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving tomorrow. Time to make the Week 12 picks. I went a wild-cardish 9-7 last week, raising the season mark to 67-73-5. I'm inching closer to .500. For the first time ever, we get three games tomorrow. The lame Lions-Dolphins matchup is the early game, followed by Cowboys-Buccaneers, and the best one of the day, the Broncos visiting Arrowhead to tangle with KC at night in a big game for both squads. Let's roll.

Miami (-3) @ Detroit: Forget tryptophan for insomnia. This game might do the trick as well. When your biggest angle is Joey Harrington returning to face the Lions, you know you're in trouble. The Dolphins seem to have figured out something, so they should take this one. (TV, CBS, 12:30)

@Dallas (-11) vs. Tampa Bay: Lot of points, I know, but I just can't see Tampa Bay's offense putting up points against a damn good Dallas defense, led by the hard-hitting Roy Williams. I'm also liking what I'm seeing out of Tony Romo, who seems to be building confidence each week. Cowboys win, 28-13. (TV, FOX, 4:15)

Denver (-1) @ Kansas City: This line's been going back and forth, which means we could be in for a whale of a game. Should be plenty of intensity, with the Chiefs trying to pull into a tie in the AFC West with the Broncos. If Plummer sucks the bit, will we see rookie Jay Cutler? If Trent Green can't get it done, will Damon Huard return? One week after getting gashed by LT, Denver goes up against LJ - but the Chiefs don't have the supporting cast that the Chargers do. I'm going with Mike Shanahan in a must-win game. Jake Plummer be damned. (TV, NFL Network, 8:00)

Arizona (+6.5) @ Minnesota: Just a hunch. If the Desert Dogs don't win, they'll keep it close. Edgerrin is due to break out any week now. Edgerrin? Edge? You out there? Cardinals cover.

Carolina (-4) @ Washington: This one jumped out at me when I first looked at the lines on Monday. Carolina is finally rounding into form, and they get to face a floundering team trying to break in a rookie QB. That, my friends, is a recipe for disaster. Mr. Campbell, meet Mr. Peppers. Panthers are the pick of the week.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Cleveland: The Bengals are another team that could be settling into a groove, and they're riding the strong right arm of Carson Palmer as they try to nail down a playoff spot. A rough and tumble low-scoring affair, with the Bengals coming out on top.

Houston (+6) @ NY Jets: Yes, the Jets should win the ballgame, but the Texans are like a dingleberry that won't go away. They're sticking around till the bitter end, which means they'll cover the six. Screw you, Bill Simmons. I'm coining this the Dingleberry Effect before you do. (TV, CBS, 1:00)

@Buffalo (+3) vs. Jacksonville: Love the home 'dog here. The Jaguars looked impressive Monday night against the Giants, but to be fair, the Jints are Red Sox-banged up on defense and the Bills are strong, particularly in their own house. The loss of DB Donovin Darious also hurts the Jags. Bills are the pick.

@Atlanta (-3) vs. New Orleans: Who the hell knows? The Saints throttled the Falcons back on the inspirational opening Monday night game at the Superdome, and I'm going with the revenge factor. Falcons win, keeping in mind that every time I use those two words in a sentence, they lose. (TV, FOX, 1:00)

@Baltimore (-3) vs. Pittsburgh: The Steelers will become the first Super Bowl champion to not make the playoffs since - um, I'm not sure and I don't feel like looking it up. They got a reprieve last Sunday with that lame shuffle pass, but they will go down this week to the new and improved Ravens.

San Francisco (+5.5) @ St. Louis: The Niners are the trendy pick over the last couple of weeks but you have to give them their due. Frank Gore has returned to stud form, the defense has been stellar, and the coach, Mike Nolan, actually looked pretty good in a suit last week patrolling the sidelines. Can you just imagine all the positive fashion reviews he got last week in, um, fashion-conscious San Francisco?

@New England (-3) vs. Chicago: Easily the game of the week. The Bears, per usual, look frighteningly awesome on defense and they're getting the job done on offense even though Grossman has been grossly inconsistent. Once again, this is a bet on Tom Brady, and I think the Dillon/Maroney duo can find some holes. Maroney should get the bulk of the work as Dillon was dinged up last week. The Patriots actually ripped up their field over the last two weeks and replaced it with FieldTurf. Should be interesting to see what the impact is. My only worry with this game is that we have to listen to smug Joe Buck. (TV, FOX, 4:15)

NY Giants (-3) @ Tennessee: The Giants are in disarray - Tiki criticized the coaching today - but if they have to circle the wagons this is a good team to do it against. Eli Manning has been horrible the last few weeks, but should do enough right to pull it out.

@San Diego (-13) vs. Oakland: You can talk yourself into taking the points and the Raiders, but have you been watching what the Chargers have done the last couple of weeks? If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Chargers in a cake walk, with LT scoring 15 touchdowns.

@Indy (-9) vs. Philly: Not what the NFL TV scheduling Gods had hoped for, not after Donovan McNabb went down with an ACL tear last week. The Eagles are as cooked as Kramer's career, and Indy doesn't have to deal with any undefeated talk. Playing free and easy, the Colts will cruise. (TV, NBC, 8:15)

@Seattle (-9) vs. Green Bay: Another crappy game for the Kornheiser crew. I can't believe I'm taking Seattle after their pathetic display against the 49ers last week, but the Niners, I think, are a lot better than people are giving them credit for. The Packers looked horrible last week in getting waxed by the Patriots, and Brett Favre looked particularly horrible - overthrowing and underthrowing receivers at every turn. The Seahawks must be happy that the Seneca Wallace Experiment is officially over. Matt Hasselbeck returns for this one (Shaun Alexander came back last week) as Seattle tries to get it together for a postseason run. (TV, ESPN, 8:30)

Voters on Crack

The AL MVP winner was announced today and there's good news and bad news. The good news? If you detest everything about the Yankees, the fist-pumping, overrated pretty boy to the right did NOT win the award as many had predicted. Instead, Twins 1B Justin Morneau surprised everyone and took home the hardware. The bad news? David Ortiz was punished even harsher for not wearing a glove. Can you believe that Big Papi did not receive one first-place vote, and only got one second? Twenty-eight "writers" voted, with 15 giving their top vote to Morneau and 12 going with Jeter. Ortiz got 11 third-place votes, 5 fourths, 7 fifths, 3 sixths, and one (who's this absolute moron?) seventh. This is what 54 HRs, 137 RBIs, 115 runs, and a .413 OBP gets you. I truly wonder what would have happened if he had clouted 60, which he may have to do to just to earn a goddamn second-place vote. Unbelievable. But we're happy that the stinkin' Yankee didn't win it.

In other news, baseball owners are again throwing money around like drunken sailors. Alfonso Soriano (.231 with RISP in '06) signed an 8-year, $136 million deal with the Cubs, and word has it that several teams are interested in Manny. All of a sudden, 2 years and $38M doesn't look so bad. Reports have the Sox talking to the Rangers (Michael Young? Yes please...) and the Angels. I'm all for trading Manny, but they damn well better get something to fill that gaping hole in the lineup. JD Drew alone isn't going to cut it. They may be thinking that adding Drew and Julio Lugo will cushion the blow, but I still think you need another bopper.

Going around the lineup, my biggest concern is entering the season with Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia as everyday regulars. I admire Youk for his intensity, etc., but there's no way in hell he should be penciled in as the automatic starter anywhere. He hasn't earned that yet, but I get the feeling he thinks he has. And Pedroia didn't show much last year, though I know they have high hopes for him.

Of course, there are a plethora of additional concerns, but let's save that post for a rainy day.

NFL Picks, Week 11

Well, well, well... finally, a reasonably good week in this ass-backwards NFL season. The final record from week 10 was 8-8, bringing the season mark to 59-66-5. This is the week that we pull closer to .500. I can feel it in the darts.

Before we get to the NFL, though, we are just mere hours away from the titanic Ohio State-Michigan game this afternoon. No. 1 vs. No. 2. Blood rivals. And to top it off, legendary Wolverines coach Bo Schembechler passed away suddenly yesterday. Absolutely surreal. Growing up, I was a huge Michigan fan. Loved the maize and blue uniforms, and the helmets. Still do, in fact. When it came time to think about applying for colleges, Michigan was my out-of-state choice and I actually got in. But I ultimately decided to stay close to family and friends. That remains my one major college regret - not being able to experience a Saturday in the life of big-time college football. Cowell Stadium up at the University of New Hampshire didn't quite cut it. Anyway, even though I'm partial to the Wolverines, I don't see how Ohio State loses this game at home today to cap off its all-around dream season. Buckeyes 21, Wolverines 17, and I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Now, for the guys who get paid to play football for a living...

Atlanta (+4) @ Baltimore: Strictly a pick based on the fact that Ray Lewis will be out again and Mike Vick might have a better time dancing through the middle of the line. This is actually a matchup of the two teams that have given us major fits all year long so maybe it will end up in a tie. I'm going with the Falcons and the four.

@Houston (-2.5) vs. Buffalo: On paper, this looks like a cure for insomnia but this could actually be a competitive ballgame between two perpetually crappy teams. To its credit, Houston for the most part has been playing people pretty tough this year, and while Buffalo has an edge on defense, their offense is still being led by Jonathan Paul Losman. I'm going with the Texans in their house.

@NY Jets (+6.5) vs. Chicago: Could be a letdown game for the J-E-T-S after an inspiring win over the Patriots last week, but I think they'll keep it close. Mangini will figure out a way to keep the pressure on Grossman. Interesting factoid: the Bears will be playing in the Meadowlands for the second week in a row. Jets are the pick.

@New Orleans (-3) vs. Cincinnati: That loss to the Chargers last week - where San Diego roared back from a 28-7 halftime deficit and put up 42 points in the second half - had to deflate the Bengals, who have really underachieved all year long. With 5 losses, their margin for error the rest of the way is razor thin. The Saints on the other hand are in control of the NFC South and they've played well at home. I'm going with N'Awlins in this one.

@Miami (-3) vs. Minnesota: The Daunte Culpepper Bowl, only he'll be watching from the sidelines with a backwards baseball cap on. The Vikings' decline has been precipitous. It's one thing to get pasted by the Patriots, quite another to not even put up a touchdown against the 49ers. The Dolphins have been steadily improving, so they get the call.

New England (-6) @ Green Bay: The Patriots keep getting six, it seems, and I keep taking them each week and losing. This week, goddammit, it stops. On the frozen tundra. Tom Brady will distribute the ball like a Vegas card dealer, the Dillon/Maroney tandem will awaken (still can't figure out why they're not using Maroney more), and the D will rise to the occasion. Brett Farve-ray won't know what hit him. Pats 31, Packers 14. (TV, CBS, 1:00)

Oakland (+9.5) @ Kansas City: I've been riding the Raiders the last couple of weeks and it's worked pretty well. I know Arrowhead is a difficult place to play, but I don't think the Chiefs are good enough to be favored by this much. This game marks the return of Trent Green, who was severely concussed on the first Sunday of the season. Warren Sapp just needs one lick to send Trent back to la-la land. Oakland covers.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cleveland: Cleveland keeps talking about the 41-0 shellacking it took at the hands of the Steelers last year, and odds are Romeo Crennel will use that to his team's advantage. But it won't be enough to stop Fast Willie Parker. Jerome who? The Steelers take care of business and keep their season alive - for now.

@Carolina (-6.5) vs. St. Louis: The Panthers may have rediscovered their mojo in the second half Monday night against Tampa Bay. They - along with the Dolphins - get the award for co-enigma of the year, but it's pretty hard to bet against Steve Smith and Julius Peppers. Cool name, Julius. Remember Orange Julius? Sorry, I digress. I'm going with the Panthers.

@Philadelphia (-13) vs. Tennessee: My first instinct: that's a boatload of points. My second instinct: I think the Eagles have found their stride and should lay a beating on the Titans. I'm going with the second. Eagles in a (moderate) rout.

@Tampa Bay (-3) vs. Washington: Wow, this one's a complete head-scratcher. Who the hell cares who wins? There is some excitement in that the 'Skins are starting former Auburn QB Jason Campbell for the first time to see what he can do. Tough to make your debut against a good defense like this one - at least I've heard they're still pretty good. I'll take Tampa at home.

@Arizona (-2) vs. Detroit: Another big-time snoozer. My goodness. I really have nothing to say, except I'm going with the Cardinals.

Seattle (-3) @ San Francisco: Niners coach Mike Nolan has been given permission by the league to wear a suit on the sidelines - not sure if it's for this game or for a future one, but I think it's pretty cool in a Tom Landry kind of way. Pretty interesting that baseball managers wear uniforms, basketball and hockey wear suits, and football coaches wear kind of a mixture of casual/golf course clothes, or hooded sweatshirts that look like they were found in a long-forgotten cardboard box. Can you imagine football coaches wearing pads? Anyway, on to the game -- all signs point to the Seahawks getting both Hasselbeck and Alexander back, which means the line will undoubtedly go up by tomorrow. That's why I do this stuff the day before. Seahawks should be able to win by more than a field goal. (TV, FOX, 4:15)

@Dallas (E) vs. Indianapolis: At first glance, it's a bit surprising that this is a pick 'em game, but then you look a little deeper at the numbers and the matchups and it really is pretty even-steven. The Colts may be 9-0 but it's one of the weakest 9-0's in recent memory. Peyton will get his, but Tony Romo will also be able to exploit the Colts secondary, and I like Julius Jones over Joseph Addai. The Colts go down to the Cowboys and the '72 Dolphins are tipping back champagne Sunday night. (TV, CBS, 4:15)

San Diego (+2.5) @ Denver: Did NBC pay extra for these games? In successive weeks, they've had Pats-Colts, Bears-Giants, and now Broncos-Chargers. Not too shabby. I think the Chargers and LT are the real deal this year, and QB Philip Rivers is vastly underrated. I understand the Mile High advantage, but I think a bet on Tomlinson is a bet well placed. Chargers will win, or at least cover. (TV, NBC, 8:15)

NY Giants (+3.5) @ Jacksonville: A few weeks ago, these two teams were mentioned as being postseason probabilities. Not anymore. Jacksonville is going through a quarterback crisis, and the Giants are banged up - and probably wishing they had drafted Philip Rivers over Eli Manning during that whole ridiculous charade. Tough call, but I'll go with the G-men to win or at least keep it tight.

That's my story - and I'm sticking to it. Let's be careful out there.

Japanese Jewel

$51.1 meeeeeeel-yun dollars. That's what the Red Sox ponied up to win the bidding process for Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. Of course, we've known for several days now that the Sox were in the driver's seat. The only suspense was how much they'd dole out. Gammons was among many that got the team right, the dollar amount wrong. Even Tom Verducci from SI was off. The only guy out there who mentioned north of $50 million was ESPN's smooth-talking analyst Orestes Destrade. Nice scoop by him. The clock now begins ticking, as the Sox have 30 days to seal the deal. Theo has had reasonably good dealings with Scott Boras, and most seem to think that will continue.

Cranking Up the Hot Stove

Getting back to hardball for at least one post (maybe more), the big news of the week so far revolves around Japanese phenom pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. The 26-year old gyroballer has officially been put on the market by his team, the Seibu Lions, who invited MLB teams to submit bids for the rights to negotiate with the righty. The usual suspects were in on the hunt (Yankees, Red Sox and Mets), and it's also believed that the forever pitching-deprived Rangers took part. ESPN's Buster Olney broke the news late last week that the Red Sox had submitted the highest bid, and that has since been backed up by several other media reports, including from Peter Gammons, who indicated that the Sox had submitted a mind-boggling number of $42 million. Again, this is just for the right to sit across the table from Scott Boras and try to hammer out a deal. If no deal gets done, the Lions don't get paid.

Matsuzaka's stock rose big-time in the World Baseball Classic, during which he and his gyroball/sinker were positively unhittable, and the Sox had been keeping a close eye on him well beforehand. Some have speculated that the Red Sox are merely trying to keep the pitcher out of pinstripes, but MLB.com's Ian Browne begs to differ, and I tend to agree. The deal makes a mountain of sense for Boston. We need pitching help, and the free agent market is thin. Jason Schmidt is made out of papier mache, and Barry Zito is incredibly overrated and probably headed to the weak-sister National League anyway to pad his stats. The move also makes a ton of sense from a marketing/revenue standpoint. We'll get official word tonight on who the highest bidder is, and then let the fun begin.

Of course, Theo is doing his best Bill Belichick imitation down at the GM meetings in Naples, Fla. (That's him to the right in the picture, getting ready for the GM's bowling tournament. Two thoughts here. 1) Bowling?? And 2) Theo has certainly come a long way fashion-wise since a year ago. From gorilla suit to Tommy Bahama.) Word in the Boston papers is that Theo is going hard after J.D. Drew (just look at his OBP and you'll see why) and others are reporting that he's made offers to at least two free agent pitchers, one of whom I hope is Ted Lilly. The Sox desperately need at least one southpaw in the rotation, assuming Jon Lester - who's battling lymphoma - isn't ready to go.

Other news and notes:

- Justin Verlander and Hanley Ramirez took home the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively. Verlander would have been pushed more by our boy Papelbon if he didn't get hurt at the end of the season, and I'm just not ready to discuss former Sox property Ramirez. All I can say is that we're still looking for a shortstop.

- Rumors are swirling that the Phillies will be big players for Alfonso Soriano, who will demand mega-bucks, and that the Yankees may look to fill their 1B hole with Nomar Garciaparra.

- The Yanks have already made a couple of moves, sending disgruntled OF Gary Sheffield to the Tigers for three prospects, and Jaret Wright to the Orioles for a box of baseballs.

- Best pre-meeting move? The Indians getting 2B Josh Barfield from the Padres. Mark my words - the son of Red Sox killer Jessee is going to be a damn good one.

NFL Week 10: The Carnage Continues

The Dolphins crush the Bears. Tom Brady throws 4 picks. Just two of the bigger proof points from Week 9 that the NFL is pure madness this year. I went 5-9 on the week, bringing the yearly total to 51-58-5. Lots of work to do to get back to .500 or above.

Here are my quick-hit thoughts on each game. As always, be careful out there.

Baltimore (-7) @ Tennessee: Two forces colliding here. The Titans got slammed last weekend against Jacksonville, and will be out to show people that they're not as bad as they looked. They probably don't want to go through a week of practice like they just had ever again. One question for you though - name three offensive starters on the Titans. Not easy is it? On the other side of the ball, it's the return of Steve McNair and the Ravens D is its old, terrifying self. Take the Ravens and the points.

@Indianapolis (-12) vs. Buffalo: This could be a letdown game for the Colts after last week's big win against the Patriots, but I don't think so. Indy is on a roll, and they'll keep rolling over the McGahee-less Bills. By the end of this one, you'll know the Bills DB's names by heart.

@Atlanta (-8) vs. Cleveland: I keep getting the Falcons wrong, but that means I'm also due. Atlanta is clearly a better team than the Browns, and all you need to know is that it's Mike Vick vs. Charlie Frye. 'Nuff said.

Green Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota: An old-time Norris Division battle. Minnesota's hard to figure - they seemed to be in a groove before the Patriots gutted them, and they've been circling the drain since. All I know about Green Bay is they've got Favre and Green, and rookie LB A.J. Hawk looks like the real deal. I'll go with the Packers and the points, but proceed with caution.

@Jacksonville (-10) vs. Houston: The Jaguars are slowly forming into a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. QB David Garrard gives them a different look than Byron Leftwich, and time will tell if Jack Del Rio is in the midst of making a change. Bottom line: Jacksonville is solid on both sides of the ball, and they'll be looking to avenge that horrendous 27-7 loss to the Texans a couple weeks back.

@Miami (-1) vs. Kansas City: Man, the Dolphins actually looked like a team last weekend against the vaunted Chicago Bears. Funny what a little pressure on the QB will do for both the defense and the offense. Ronnie Brown should slice and dice again, and while LJ will get his fantasy points, Miami's defense will stand tall. I'm going with the Dolphins.

@New England (-10.5) vs. NY Jets: The Patriots should lay the hammer on the Jets this weekend, solidifying their grip on the AFC East. The last time these two met New England raced out to a big lead and then let the Jets back into the game on some ridiculous catch and runs by their receivers. If memory serves correctly, Pennington could have won the game with a successful Hail Mary at the end. Different story this time as Pats roll. (TV, 1:00, CBS)

San Diego (-1) @ Cincinnati: All the makings of a good game. An absolute must-win for the Bengals, who can't risk falling any further behind the front-running Ravens. They've been schizophrenic all year long, and all I can tell you is that I've started Jon Kitna over Carson Palmer in my fantasy league two weeks in a row. San Diego is the better team, and while the Bungles might get some juice from the hometown crowd, I'm sticking with the hot Chargers, who also are looking to keep pace with Denver.

@Detroit (-6) vs. San Francisco: The Mike Martz Effect is starting to pay some small dividends for the long-suffering Lions. Don't get me wrong - they're no threat come playoff time, but they can give opposing defenses fits, and it says here the Niners will have a tough time containing Kitna, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, et al. Lay the points with the Lions.

@Philadelphia (-7) vs. Washington: See the Atlanta reference above. The other time that I just cannot get right to save my life this year is the Eagles. Donovan McNabb looks like a worldbeater one week, and then Tony Eason the next. The egg they laid against the Jaguars two weeks back was putrid. And of course, I'm going with them again this week because I'm a sucker. Andy Reid did not lose his coaching skills overnight. Joe Gibbs may be heading back to NASCAR-land soon.

@Oakland (+9) vs. Denver: My what the hell pick for the week. I think Denver wins, but I'll take the points with the Raiders playing in their madhouse. I know Andrew Walter is still their QB, but their defense has been coming on of late and the Broncos aren't really scary against good D's.

New Orleans (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh: I don't understand why the Steelers continue to be Vegas' darling. They haven't shown anything for about a month now, and they're still favored every week. I realize this is a huge, must-win game for them - at home - but I'm going with the resurgent Saints to at least cover and possibly steel away with a victory. (TV, 4:15, FOX)

Dallas (-6.5) @ Arizona: Watch, this will be the game that Edge breaks out and displays his old skills. For such a loud free agent pickup, he's been awfully quiet. The Cowboys lost a heartbreaker last weekend but they'll pick their game up in the desert. Romo leads them to a must-have win.

St. Louis (+3) @ Seattle: Another pick going against the grain and Seattle's best-in-the-league home field advantage. Seneca Wallace may have a cool name, but he's no Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks encountered a battle Monday night against the Raiders. The Rams should put up a better fight.

@New York (E) vs. Chicago: Should be a doozy. The weather forecast is calling for wind and rain in the Meadowlands Sunday night, which could mean a low-scoring affair. I think the Giants take this one. Tiki will control the clock and the Giants may have learned a little something from Nick Saban's defensive playbook last Sunday against Rex Grossman. Pressure him and he becomes a smaller, Jewish version of Drew Bledsoe. (TV, 8:15, NBC)

@Carolina (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay: What gives with the lame Monday night matchups the last two weeks? Is it next Sunday yet? I'll go with the Panthers against the rookie QB. Can't wait to hear which guys are on Tony Kornheiser's fantasy team.

If you're one of the few hearty souls who read this through, do yourself a favor and pick the exact opposite. Happy Sunday.

NFL Week 9: Your Guess Is As Good As Mine

Well, if I was a baseball player my 3 out of 10 mark last Sunday would make me one of the game's better hitters. But in today's parity-ridden NFL, where if anyone tells you they're doing well with their weekly picks they're absolutely, positively lying, 3 out of 10 puts you right in the middle of the mediocre morass. After coming out of the gate pretty nicely, the season mark now stands at 46-49-5. But I ain't giving up. After all, did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!? ("The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor??" "Leave him alone - he's on a roll...") This week, I'm going with the dartboard method. No analysis, no research. Just blind luck. Because that's truly what NFL predicting is all about these days. Onto the darts.

@Detroit (+5.5) vs. Atlanta: This one could be an aerial display, given what Ron Mexico has done the past few weeks as well as his underappreciated counterpart, Jon Kitna. The Lions stink - this much is true - but I also think the Falcons (like their flashy QB) are completely overhyped and will look past the Lions. I like the Kitna vs. Falcons DB matchup, and the fact that Kevin Jones is running with authority. The Lions are the pick.

@Baltimore (-3) vs. Cincinnati: This one's for superiority in the AFC North, and logic says the Ravens should take it on their home turf. Of course, it doesn't help the Bengals' cause that nutbag Bengals WR Chad Johnson has managed to rile up Ravens LB Ray Lewis. But getting back to football for a minute, the Bengals have just plain stunk since the Patriots laid the lumber to them, and the Ravens - with Brian Billick now calling the shots for the offense - seem to have awoken from their slumber. (Like that? Lumber, slumber?) I like the Ravens in this one.

Dallas (-3) @ Washington: Call me crazy, but I think Tony Romo's got a chance to hold onto this job for awhile, despite what Drew Bledsoe's blog says. The kid showed me something last week against Carolina. Not only does he have a strong arm, but he can adjust on the fly and get the extra yards with his own legs. The only way Drew can get yards is if he just falls down, but he's usually falling down well behind the line of scrimmage. For all the noise, Dallas has a pretty good nucleus with T.O, Terry Glenn, Julius Jones, and Jason Witten, and their D is solid. Dallas takes it, bringing more misery to the 'Skins.

Green Bay (+3) @ Buffalo: I saw J.P. Losman a couple weeks back against the Patriots. I'm going with Green Bay.

@NY Giants (-13) vs. Houston: I'm going to say it now, on Saturday, November 4, 2006. The Giants are going to the Super Bowl, and they're going to get beaten by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. How ya like them apples? The Giants are in a groove, and in my humble opinion, they have the best balance in the NFC. The Bears might quarrel with that, and they’ll get to settle the issue next Sunday night at the Meadowlands. For now, the Jints and Tiki should run all over the eternally pathetic Texans.

Kansas City (+3) @ St. Louis: I know it’s not the cozy confines of Arrowhead Stadium, but how can you look past what Larry Johnson has done the past few weeks. My goodness. And to think this guy was backing up Priest Holmes a short while back. Plenty of points should be scored, with the Chiefs coming out on top.

@Chicago (-13.5) vs. Miami: As The Who sang, I won’t get fooled again. I actually thought the 49ers might give the Bears a little bit of a fight last week, and that dart was completely missed the board and landed on the pool table. Now the Bears’ exhibition season continues with a matchup against the dreadful Dolphins. Miami’s D might be able to stop the Bears from getting 40+, but it ain’t gonna be pretty. Lucky for me, I get to watch this game since I’ll be in sunny Florida on Sunday.

@Tampa Bay (+1) vs. New Orleans: And this is the other great game I get to watch. I’m just so fortunate. I guess that’s what satellite dishes are for. The Saints got pummeled by Baltimore last weekend while the Bucs lost by 2 touchdowns to the Giants. Really no clue on this one – but because we have to pick ‘em all (it’s in the rulebook). I’ll pin my hopes on Tampa Bay’s defense to rise to the occasion at home.

@Jacksonville (-9.5) vs. Tennessee: Another underwhelming affair. The Jags had a boring but effective win over the frustrating Eagles last weekend, and all reports say that David Garrard will again be taking the snaps. He’s not a threat with the pass, but the kid can run. He’s also a new member of the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars (link), in terms of guys you thought were white based on their names but they’re really black. Tennessee’s run defense is dreadful, which could spell a big day for Garrard, and RB’s Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Go with the Jaguars.

Minnesota (-5) @ San Francisco: The Vikings have to be out to prove that they’re not as bad as Brady & Co. made them look last Monday night – and the Niners could be the right medicine at the right time. Look for Chester Taylor to have a good game, leading the Vikings to victory.

Cleveland (+12.5) @ San Diego: Hey, what the hell. You have to throw a surprise dart every now and then. The Chargers will be without Shawne “I didn’t do it” Merriman for this one, and really, it’s all about LT when it comes to the Chargers. Philip Rivers isn’t going to scare Romeo Crennel and his defensive troops. Romeo will try to take away LT, and I think he’ll be moderately successful. Take the Brownies with the points.

Denver (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh: The second-best game on the board this weekend, with two teams coming off tough losses. The Broncos lost a nail-biter to Indy last Sunday, while the Steelers lost to the Raiders in the most humiliating fashion possible. Pittsburgh will no doubt be revved up in front of the hometown crowd, but I think the Broncos can run on these guys and if Big Ben had problems with Oakland’s secondary, wait till he gets a load of Denver’s.

@New England (-3) vs. Indy: This game really can’t come soon enough. You’ve got all sorts of sub-plots: the return of Adam Vinatieri, the Peyton-Brady talk, the hatred between Bill Belichick and Colts’ executive Bill Polian, and how could we leave this out, the much-discussed issues with the Gillette Stadium sod. Let’s tackle each, briefly. I think the Pats made a rare miscue when they let Vinatieri walk. I understand the whole value thing, but he was one of those rare cases where you make an exception. Isn’t an extra mil worth the late-game comfort? Especially considering how many tight games the Pats have played in recent years? Peyton vs. Brady? No contest. Manning is Marino, Brady is Montana. Who would you rather have? The Belichick-Polian thing is amusing. Supposedly it goes back to the 90’s when Polian was in charge of the silver-medal Buffalo Bills and BB was with the NYG. The two men just don’t have a lot of nice things to say about each other. An article in the papers this week said that some press box observers overhead Polian yelling ‘break his leg’ when Doug Flutie scrambled for a run in last year’s Colts victory. And finally – the grass. The middle of the field has been like playing in a sandbox all year – I’m surprised the kickers and holders don’t bring out little plastic pails and shovels and make sand castles. It’s the same for both teams, but the Patriots have finally acquiesced and made some improvements. We should see a green field come Sunday eve. Oh yeah - a prediction. Pats 28, Colts 20. Indy can’t stop Dillon and Maroney.

Oakland (-7.5) @ Seattle: Not exactly a riveting Monday nighter, but sometimes these are the ones that turn out pretty good. Seattle’s injuries (Hasselbeck, Alexander) have taken a toll, but they did manage to put up 28 points last week against the Chiefs. I think I could actually pull together a team that could put up 28 on KC though. The Raiders, on the other hand, walked away with a gift-wrapped win last week, but their defense is playing pretty well. Just don’t lose by more than 7, baby. I’m going with Oakland.

Minny Mouse

The Pats-Vikings game is just entering the 4th quarter and Tom Brady & Co. have pretty much invaded the Vikings home, scrawled graffiti on their walls, ripped up their furniture, defecated on the rugs, and taken one giant collective piss on the front lawn. How's them for visuals?

It's 31-7 with 12:52 left, and it's been a thorough dismantling. Defense, offense, special teams, offense. On Monday Night Football, no less, which Belichick won't like because the Pats will no longer be a 6-1 team flying under the radar.

Brady has carved up the Vikings' secondary like a turkey. Check out these numbers: 28 for 39, 364 yards, 4 TD's. He's completed passes to 10 different receivers, and four different guys have caught touchdown passes. And oh, by the way, there's still more than 10 minutes left in the game. Brady just got sacked twice - Bill, throw Matt Cassel in there. Pleeeze.

Anyway, the Vikings laid a gigantic egg in this one. All we heard about all week was the vaunted offensive line, Steve Hutchinson this, Bryant McKinnie that, Chester Taylor, blah, blah, blah. Maybe Minnesota is good and they're just having a really bad night, or maybe they still suck. I'm still mad at them for that 41-3 shellacking they took against the Giants back in the NFC playoffs a few years back. I had a vested interest in that game, and let's just say I was out shopping at Home Goods with the wife before the first quarter had ended. The Vikings always throw up on themselves.

Some random thoughts from watching the game tonight:

- ESPN has officially become a caricature of itself. It's got so much money, and so much ego, that it just can't help itself. The halftime "race" of mascots dressed like Berman, Irvin, Young, etc., was sad. I'm hoping it wasn't ESPN's idea.

- Two female sideline reporters? Seriously? Can we at least get Melissa Stark back (gratuitous opportunity to post hot picture of Melissa Stark...)

- In the booth, I have to admit I kind of like Tony Kornheiser, but I'm not a fan of Joe Theismann. The former athlete who can provide commentary on a game without talking down to his audience has it right. Theismann is constantly lecturing.

- Just read that Bill Belichick's 19-year old son was arrested for having a small amount of weed on him. Tell me BB didn't inhale when he was at Wesleyan in the late 60's.

- I love dominating wins on the road. The Patriots drove 90 yards on their first drive, effectively putting a muzzle on the rowdy crowd. Beautiful.

- Gotta love the shots of the respective owners in their luxury suites. There's Bob Kraft, looking like he's tipped a few scotches back, laughing and joking with Prince Jonathan - and then there's Vikings owner Zygi Wolf, looking like - well - someone just took a dump in his living room.

- Laurence Maroney is a STUD. Just biding his time - profesionally at that - until Corey wins another ring. This kid's going to be around for a long time. Doesn't give up on a play and knows how to deliver a head-butt.

- It's now 31-7 with less than 3 minutes left and we're watching Matt Cassel duel Brooks Bollinger. About time Coach Bill wised up and gave the franchise a break.

- New England's defense is vastly underrated, but that may change with this white-washing. If this score holds, the Pats will have given up an average of 9 points per game over their last four. They haven't allowed more than 17 points in a game this year.

- One last note - Bollinger just had the Vikes down at the Pats' 10-yard line and threw another pick. I actually feel bad for these guys. Lots of purple face paint wasted on this one.

- Indy vs. New England, next Sunday night, in Foxborough. The return of Adam Vinatieri, who's now helping Peyton Manning win games. Tom Brady and his now-clicking offense. And the Pats' suddenly dominant D. Yee-hah. Take the over. Best of all, I'll be in a hot tub in Palm Beach watching the proceedings on a big-screen with an umbrella drink in my hand.

Arnold "Red" Auerbach, 1917-2006

We lost an original last night when Celtics patriarch Red Auerbach passed away in Washington D.C. at the age of 89. My one recollection, for what it's worth. Back in the mid-1980s, when the Celtics owned this town, a buddy and I went to a Celtics game at the old Garden during a blizzard. We figured a lot of folks might not show up, and that we'd be able to relocate to some pretty nice seats. Sure enough, at the end of the first quarter, we upgraded from the balcony to mid-level loge on the opposite side of the benches - just a beautiful vantage point to see Larry and the boys do some damage. There were three empty seats next to us, and all of a sudden Red and Bob Cousy appear out of nowhere and sit two seats down from us. Of course, we thought we were going to get booted, but instead ended up staying and talking a little hoops with the legend himself. What a treat. The tribute ideas are already flying around. My idea: how about a red seat in the mid-level loge area, opposite the benches?

NFL Week 8: Trick or Treat Picks

Well, last week was downright fugly. After enjoying a lofty perch above .500 for several weeks, my lame 3-9-1 mark brings the season record perilously close to break-even, at 43-39-4. But I'm feeling good about this week, as any good prognosticator does on the Saturday before. And I think we're in for a hell of a Monday night contest between the Pats and Vikings. Let's do it.

@Tennessee (+3) vs. Houston: The former team from Houston against the current team that calls Houston home. The Titans have come on in recent weeks, and the Texans enjoyed a rare blowout win against Jacksonville last week, which cost me a fair amount of coin. I hate Jack-Ass Del Rio for playing Byron Leftwich. Anyway, this could be a close game but I'm going with the Titans to pull it out.

@Philadelphia (-7) vs. Jacksonville: Speaking of the Jaguars, Del Rio has already announced (a week late, butthead) that backup David Garrard will start this game in place of Leftwich. After a tough loss to Tampa Bay last week, I think Jim Johnson and his Eagles D will be ready, especially in front of the, um, demanding hometown Philly crowd. Eagles are the pick. (TV game: CBS, 1:00)

@Cincinnati (-3.5) vs. Atlanta: Was it a mirage, or did Mike Vick really toss four TD passes last week? Not sure if that's a credit to Vick or if the Steelers' secondary had concrete boots on. The Falcons' secondary wasn't much better, allowing Charlie Batch of all people to pretty much have his way. On the other side of the ball, the Forrest Gump Bengals are like a box of chocolates - you just don't know what you're going to get. But Carson Palmer is a little better than Batch, and it should be another long day for the Falcons' DBs. Take Cincy.

Tampa Bay (+9) @ NY Giants: A couple of factors conspire, I think, to make this one closer than the spread. The Jints won a big divisional game Monday night, and might have a slight letdown. It's also been pretty darn windy here in the northeast this weekend. I think I just saw an SUV go flying by my window, or maybe it was a small shed. Either way, points may be hard to come by in this one. Giants win it, but Bucs cover the nine. (TV game: Fox, 1:00)

San Francisco (+16) @ Chicago: I want to see how the Bears stack up against better teams, and this game ain't going to be a measuring stick. My first instinct was to take Chicago remembering how they completely disemboweled the Bills a couple weeks ago. But Alex Smith is better than J.P. Losman. I may regret this (and probably will) but I'll be a points whore and take the 16 with the 49ers.

Arizona (+4) @ Green Bay: Ah, why not? I know it's hallowed ground and Brett Favre and all that, but this is a desperation game for Arizona. I wish I had a pulse on how much or little the Cardinals players like Denny Green. Lose this one, and the curtain could fall on the Green Era by Monday morning. A win keeps him around. I'll go with the Cardinals, who probably don't want to endure another week of practice like the one they just saw after losing to the Raiders last Sunday. Plus, Matt Leinart's gotta win one for his new baby boy.

Seattle (+6) @ Kansas City: These two teams are losing QBs like the Grateful Dead used to lose keyboard players - frequently. The Chiefs got the ball rolling when Trent Green almost got his head knocked off, and last week Matt Hasselbeck went down with a knee injury. Now we hear that Damon Huard may not play for the Chiefs and they may to rely on rookie QB Brodie Croyle. What's going to happen to Seneca Wallace tonight? I'll go with the Seahawks in this one, and take the under. (Which in this wacky NFL season means the Chiefs will win a shootout.)

@New Orleans (-2) vs. Baltimore: Who'da thunk the Saints would ever be favored over the Ravens? That's what having good skill players on offense will do for you and the Saints have certainly upgraded. Brees, Bush, Deuce, Horn, Colston. And the Ravens have um, ahhh... Saints take it.

St. Louis (+10) @ San Diego: This could be a good one. The Rams are flying under the radar, and the Chargers have had to deal all week with the Shawne Merriman steroids allegations. LT will get his touches, but the Rams and Steven Jackson will cover - and may even steal away with a win.

@Oakland (+9) vs. Pittsburgh: Word on the street is that Big Ben will play after getting rocked last weekend against Atlanta. But Joey Porter is still hurting, and we all saw how bad the Steelers' secondary is. I can't believe I'm typing these words, but Andrew Walter could add some passing yardage to his stats this week, and Randall Moss should be on the receiving end. It will be enough for the Raiders to cover the nine.

NY Jets (+2) @ Cleveland: The battle of former Belichick defensive coordinators could be a pretty low-scoring contest. Eric Mangini and Romeo Crennel know their stuff, and in the end my gut tells me the Jets' offense will put a few more points up on the board. Again, let's just all give thanks that we don't have to watch this one.

@Denver (-3) vs. Indianapolis: Can't you just see Mike Shanahan and his awesome defense giving Peyton all kinds of fits? I can. The nice thing about this one is that both of these teams will be in competition with the Patriots for a first-round bye in the AFC, and someone has to lose. The Broncos' home-field edge puts them over the top. And finally, we're all happy this one will be on the tube. (TV game: CBS, 4:00)

@Carolina (-5.5) vs. Dallas: An interesting matchup to say the least. Jake Delhomme and his offense are due to break out, and all eyes will be on the Panthers' D to see what havoc they can wreak on Tony Romo and the Cowboys' weak offensive line. The QB controversy in Dallas drew national attention all week long, and it'll be a tough matchup for Romo to break in with. I'm going with Carolina.

New England (-2) @ Minnesota: This has all the makings of a great ballgame. I can't remember the last time I looked forward to watching the battle at the line of scrimmage. When the Vikings are on offense, you've got Richard Seymour (hopefully), Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork trying to work on Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie. When the Patriots are on offense, the space for Dillon and Maroney to operate will be pretty tight, thanks to an awesome Vikings' D-line. It truly should be a fascinating chess game. I don't know enough about the Vikings' secondary, and I think the Pats DB's have slowly been improving. Call me a homer (homer!), but the pick here is the Patriots because of No. 12. If anyone can guide his team through the loud, chaotic environment the Metrodome promises to be Monday night, it's Tommy Cool. Oh yeah - he's 9-0 in domes. And he shags Bridget Moynahan.

(By the way - the Beavers (Oregon St.) beat the Trojans (USC) today. Again, that was the Beavers coming out on top against the Trojans. Felt it was important to point that out.)